580
FXUS63 KDDC 101710
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1210 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A relatively dry pattern is forecast through mid-week.

- A warming trend is expected through the end of the week with
  unseasonably hot temperatures Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft transitioning east through
the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a broad area of high
pressure is shifting east through the Upper Midwest.

Relatively dry conditions are forecast to continue through much of
the period as the SREF indicates weak ridging aloft pushing east
through the Central Plains. Despite an extremely weak flow aloft,
there is an outside chance (<20%) for an isolated thunderstorm or
two across extreme southwest Kansas late this afternoon/evening as a
weak upper level shortwave trough drops southeast out of the Colorado
Rockies into the Texas Panhandle. A prevailing southeasterly upslope
flow tapping into moisture to our south will support surface dewpoints
remaining well up into the 50s(F) across the area. Steepening mid-
level lapse rates combined with ample instability will support the
potential for thunderstorm development late this afternoon as H5
vort maxima associated with the shortwave drop southeast out of the
Rockies into the Southern High Plains, interacting with a stalled
frontal boundary well off to the southwest in eastern New Mexico.
The HREF does only show a 10% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding .05
of an inch in very extreme southwest Kansas through late Monday
night.

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected today as departing surface
high pressure gives way to south-southeasterlies. This will be slow
to erode the cooler air mass in place, only pushing H85 temperatures
into the upper teens(C) in central Kansas to near 20C closer to the
Colorado border. The latest HREF paints a 50-70% probability of
afternoon highs exceeding 80F in extreme southwest Kansas to a 100%
probability of above 80F in central Kansas. For tonight, the HREF
shows a widespread 60-80% probability of lows dropping below 65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Lingering precip chances (20%) into Tuesday will give way to a
drier/warming pattern by mid-week as medium range ensembles indicate
ridging aloft building across the Desert Southwest into the Western
High Plains. The NBM only shows a only a 10% probability of 12-hr
QPF exceeding even a tenth of an inch Tuesday before conditions really
dry out Wednesday and Thursday.

More seasonal temperatures return Tuesday as prevailing southerlies
enhance warm air advection into western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures
above 20C in central Kansas to near 25C in extreme southwest Kansas.
With the NBM painting a 50-70% probability of temperatures exceeding
85F in central Kansas to a 70-80% probability of nudging above 85F
farther west, look for afternoon highs well up into the mid/upper
80s(F) to near 90F. The warming trend continues Wednesday as upper
level ridging approaches, sending afternoon highs well above 90F
as the NBM supports that with a 70-90% probability. An 80-90%
probability of temperatures climbing above 95F on Thursday suggests
afternoon highs nearing 100F across much of southwest Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current
southeast winds aoa 12 kts will continue through sunset before
weakening to light and variable by 03Z Tuesday. Little change
is expected thereafter with only a minor uptick in winds out of
the southwest possible at HYS around sunrise Tuesday morning.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Springer