539
FXUS63 KDDC 142323
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
623 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather for tonight

- Only 15-20% of showers and storms near Colorado border Sunday PM

- Highs chances of storms (>20%) Tuesday/Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Quiet weather is expected tonight. The lee trough will continue. As
a result, southeast to southerly winds will continue through the
overnight. Dewpoints are relatively high with values in the mid 50s
to lower 60s this afternoon. As such, lows tonight will be mild with
values in the upper 50s west to mainly 60s for much of the FA central
and east.

For Sunday, the lee trough will diurnally deepen. SE to S winds will
become breezy at times with speeds around 20 mph with higher gusts.
Highs should peak in the 89F to 94F range. The hottest highs are
expected across far southwest Kansas, where the air will be slightly
drier and more likely to get hotter. The lee trough will continue
Sunday afternoon and evening across eastern Colorado. There might
be some showers or weak storms that may develop along this trof axis
in the afternoon. There looks to be a minor upper level wave with
some cooler mid level temperatures to help spark off this activity
as well. As such, have some low pops (15-20%) tomorrow evening across
the Colorado border. As this mid level baroclinic zone moves through,
there might be some showers or weak storms Monday morning across
central Kansas. Otherwise, much of the FA should remain dry outside
of these two highlighted areas.

By Monday and Tuesday, a large UL low will begin to carve out across
the western United States. Moisture will continue to prevail with
60F+ dewpoints continuing across western Kansas. The combination
of the approaching wave and the low level moisture will lead to storm
chances with the highest pops Tuesday. This deterministic solutions
do match up with probabilistic terms from the EPS with 30 to 60%
chance of QPF >0.10" Tuesday. Another source or probabilistic messaging
comes from the grand ensemble, which shows 50 to 80% chance of QPF
>0.10" Tuesday. As such, the higher pops are warranted since both
deterministic and probabilistic sources show the increasing chances
of storms across the FA for the beginning of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

(00z Update)

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. SE winds
will increase by midmorning with gusts up too 25kts. By the end
of the TAF period, expect wind gusts to decrease to the lower
20s.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Brown