Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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791 FXUS63 KDDC 141600 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1100 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and dry weather is predicted through Monday. - There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening and night, but it is too early to address details on severity. - South to southeast winds and above average temperatures are expected through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 An upper level storm system will dig southward along the west coast through Sunday, move eastward across the Rockies by Monday and then eject northeastward into southern Canada by Wednesday. This system will be too far northwest to push a cold front into Kansas. Therefore, south to southeast winds and warm weather will prevail each day. The southeastern edge of the upper level troughing will clip southwest Kansas Tuesday evening, with large scale forcing for ascent across the high plains where a dry line will be located. Low level moisture is progged to be marginal by mid September standards, with dewpoints only around 60F. This marginal moisture, combined with the typical early fall, warm upper level temperatures, will only allow for marginal to moderate surface based CAPE. CAPE density will be low (tall and thin positive area on a Skew-t log P diagram). Storms will probably form on the dry line to the west of Kansas in the mid afternoon and then progress into western Kansas late in the evening and overnight. These storms could be marginally severe; but it is too early to provide a lot of detail. Due to the scattered nature of expected rains, the ECMWF and CMCE ensemble means only indicate 10-30% chances for > .5". Following the aforementioned system, another strong upper level trough will progress into the western United States by Wednesday and then slowly edge eastward through Friday and Saturday and approach the southern and central high plains. The precise evolution of this upper level storm is uncertain; but the CMCE and ECMWF ensemble means are very similar with the timing. The best chance of thunderstorms is Friday and Saturday. Given the expected higher dewpoints by Friday (mid 60s), along with stronger instability and forcing for ascent, expect larger rain totals. The ECMWF and CMCE ensemble means show rain amounts of .5 to 1.5" and .5 to 1" respectively for Friday into Saturday, with the higher amounts in central Kansas and lower amounts across far western Kansas. Of course, given the convective nature of the rain, some areas will receive a lot more than others. Given that a cold frontal passage is not expected through at least Friday, expect continued warm weather. With the higher moisture content, overnight lows will increase to the mid to upper 60s and highs will continue to be well into the 80s to perhaps lower 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 VFR expected through TAF pd. S/SE winds 15-20 kt will decrease around 10 kt towards dusk. Winds will increase once again to 15-20 kt tomorrow with continued lee troughing. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...Sugden