Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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690 FXUS63 KDDC 050700 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 200 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...Updated Short/Long Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Some of the hottest temperatures so far of the young summer season are expected Wednesday, as high pressure builds over SW KS. - Southwest Kansas will remain dry Wednesday and Thursday. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return Friday, and continue through the upcoming weekend. - A cooling trend is expected Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Midnight infrared satellite imagery revealed a quiet early summer night across SW KS, with a large ongoing MCS across Oklahoma. Light NEly winds at midnight will trend light and variable through sunrise Wednesday, as a weak 1012 mb surface high settles over SW KS. With the light wind regime and moist soils/standing water from previous rains, at least some areas of stratus will develop through Wednesday morning, along with reduced visibility in BR/patchy fog. Fog is not expected to be dense or widespread, but with so much standing water/wet soil available, locally dense radiation fog is possible. Stratus and areas of reduced visibility will be most favored over the central CWA, from GCK to DDC. Any fog/stratus will dissipate rapidly in the early June sunshine by 10 am. All model guidance continues to show strong warming Wednesday, with a net increase of 5-7C at 850 mb over Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures of 90-95 are expected, and prefer the trend in guidance to shave these values down 1-2 degrees given 1) temperature forecasts have been consistently a few degrees too warm the past few days and 2) evaporation from standing water and wet topsoils will have a 1-2 degree cooling effect. Still, breezy SWly downslope will deliver the hottest day so far in 2024 for many. 592 dm upper high centered near the Four Corners 7 pm Wednesday will move little through the short term, centered near Santa Fe 7 pm Thursday. While midlevel heights climb appreciably, a dry minor cold front will bring an easterly component wind shift Thursday, and bring 5-7C of cooling at 850 mb in the lower atmosphere. Afternoon temperatures will be trimmed back to the upper 80s for most, with areas adjacent to Oklahoma near 90. All grids are dry for all zones for the short term period, Wednesday and Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Stronger south winds will return Friday, stronger than NBM guidance, ushering temporarily hotter temperatures back into SW KS. With the improved southerly mixing, the dryline will reestablish during the afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and high instability east of the dryline, and hot temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 west of the dryline. Convergence along this surface boundary will be the trigger for any isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening, assuming the capping inversion is not prohibitive. Forcing for initiation is not obvious, but with the 592 dm high sinking southward into Texas, NWly midlevel flow will increase to 30-40 kts, atop increasing SEly winds late, given adequate shear to support ornanized convection. With high instability (CAPE > 3000 J/kg) any sustained supercells will be capable of large hail. Highest chance category pops favor Friday evening, when 00z EPS shows 30-40% probability of QPF > 0.10 inch across central and eastern zones. Over time over the upcoming weekend, flow over North America will becoming increasingly amplified, with midlevel ridging building north through the Great Basin by Sunday, and as troughing and embedded rotating shortwaves remains in place across the Great Lakes/Midwest. This synoptic evolution will drive the associated cold front through SW KS Saturday, with winds becoming light NEly. While cool advection will be modest to nonexistent Saturday, a reinforcing push of noticeably cooler and drier air is expected Sunday. Given these trends, NBM correctly shows a downward cooling trend in its max temperature grids Sunday and Monday, with high temperatures several degrees below normal, near 80, Monday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm coverage appears most favored for Saturday evening - Sunday morning, as the second, final push of cooler/drier air arrives. Along those lines, MCS generation is most likely Saturday night into early Sunday, when locally heavy rainfall is expected again, and at least marginally severe hail/wind is possible. A relative minimum in temperatures is expected sunrise Monday, as northeast flow and dry/cool advection allows for a cool morning well down into the mid 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR will prevail through the majority of this TAF period. The exception will be during the 09-15z Wed timerange, when areas of stratus and fog are expected to develop in a light wind regime and saturated boundary layer. The highest confidence of stratus and patchy fog development is at DDC/GCK, with less confidence at HYS/LBL. Any fog/stratus will burn off rapidly by 15z Wed. After 15z Wed, SW winds return to all airports, gusting 20-23 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Turner