Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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849 FXUS63 KDDC 042304 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 604 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A break in thunderstorm activity is forecast tonight through Friday with 12-hr probability of precipitation less than 15 percent through this period. - Strong to severe thunderstorms will increase in chances beginning Friday evening which will continue through the weekend. - Multiple thunderstorm clusters over the weekend will likely bring localized rainfall over an inch across portions of west central and southwest Kansas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 602 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 After looking over forecast trends and updated added some patchy fog wording mainly from Scott City to Greensburg from just before sunrise to shortly after sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Early this afternoon, an elongated shortwave trough extending from the western Dakotas south to western Kansas continued to move east. An associated cold front at the surface was also moving southeast across western Kansas, reaching a Great Bend, KS to Perryton, TX line as of 20Z (3 PM CDT). On satellite, clearing was occurring behind the front, and the severe weather risk continued to push east of our forecast area, deeper into central and south central Kansas. This Short Term period tonight through Wednesday night will be quiet as we enter a break from convective weather. For tonight, we will be watching for patchy ground fog as skies continue to clear areawide and winds drop off to near calm. We have not entered any fog into the official forecast, but the evening shift may need to add some fog in if the signal becomes stronger. The 12Z models, including the HREF ensemble, only shows isolated to widely scattered 10 to 15% probabilities of one-quarter mile visibility across much of southwest Kansas. Wednesday and Wednesday night will continue quiet as stated above, with a warmup expected to afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s expected. The mid 90s will be confined to areas of mainly far southwest Kansas where precipitation over the past couple weeks has been less than other corners of west central and southwest Kansas. On Wednesday Night, another cold front will push south late in the night, likely reaching west central Kansas by 09Z Thursday. This front will push all the way through southwest Kansas by some time early to mid morning hours Thursday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The focus of the Long Term period will be another active MCS pattern from Friday Night through Monday Night. There has been run-to-run continuity among all the major global deterministic and ensemble system of a favorable west-northwest pattern aloft, above an increasingly moistening boundary layer across the High Plains. Widespread southerly/southeasterly low level winds will develop, favoring terrain-enhanced convective storms across eastern Colorado and adjacent High Plains. Dryline/leeside trough convergence will also favor storm development over the weekend in addition to any outflow boundaries from previous mesoscale convective systems (MCS). Multiple MCSs are becoming more and more likely through the Friday Night into Monday Night period. If there is any night that is the most favorable for numerous thunderstorms and widespread one-half inch or more rainfall would be Saturday Night, as this is the time frame of greatest Grand Ensemble (ECMWF, Canadian, and GEFS combined) signal regardless of the metric used to generate probabilistic output...as the Grand Ensemble shows Saturday Night, in particular, as the best time for joint probabilities of QPF, CAPE, and deep layer wind shear. The lack of an amplified large scale, hemispheric pattern will support continued MCS activity, which models will keep going through around Tuesday. By Tuesday of next week, the global model/ensemble consensus shows an increasing signal of a potential long break in convective weather with anomalous cool 850mb temperature and anomalous high mean sea-level pressure across much of the central and eastern CONUS. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Possible low clouds and patchy fog could develop between 10-14Z mainly for GCK and DDC. Percentage chance of IFR or LIFR flight category during this time is around 15%. Otherwise we should see mainly VFR flight category with winds picking up after 18Z for all terminals to around 10-18 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Tatro SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Tatro