Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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876 FXUS63 KDDC 262258 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 558 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southwest Kansas will be dry and quiet through Monday, with a beautiful Memorial Day expected. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms, providing beneficial welcome rainfall, are expected Tuesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Final shortwave in the series was moving through central Kansas at midday, producing a patch of midlevel clouds. Subsidence will increase through the afternoon with few if any clouds. Northwest winds will remain noticeably elevated, gusting 30-35 mph through sunset. Full late May insolation and NWly downslope compression will warm all locations into the 80s through 4 pm. Clear and quiet tonight, beneath dry WNWly midlevel flow. Winds will trend to light NWly or light and variable, allowing for radiational cooling, and Memorial Day sunrise temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Memorial Day will be a perfect day to get outdoors, with few clouds, light winds, and warm afternoon temperatures in the 85-90 range. Models show a warming of 2-3C at 850 mb over Sunday, ensuring most locations will be several degrees above normal for late May. Low level southeast flow will commence Monday night, with the onset of a warm/moist advection pattern, with at least an increase in cloud cover expected. All guidance to varying degrees suggest isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing after midnight Tuesday morning in response to the warm/moist advection, and increased pops to widespread slight chance (<25%). 12z NAM shows little CAPE, so thunder should be limited. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 An extended period of scattered showers and thunderstorms remains evident through this long term period, Tuesday through Saturday. 12z MEX 24-hour pops for measurable rain at DDC are 40-50% each of these days. Synoptically, a broad ridge over the Rockies Tuesday will spread onto the plains Wednesday, in response to a longwave trough arriving in the northern Rockies. The longwave trough is forecast to eject onto the northern plains and the Canadian prairies Thursday and Friday. This evolution will ensure south/southeast boundary layer flow will be persistent through the period, with continued open access to gulf moisture. As such, the dryline will remain draped north- south, efficiently backed up westward on the high plains, sloshing/mixing back and forth daily. Widespread NBM pops in the chance, to at times, likely category, are spread throughout the long term period, and these were accepted. Severe potential is not synoptically evident on any day, with rather benign zonal westerly midlevel flow, and better forcing for ascent well to the north, closer to the base of the northern plains trough. Still, moisture and thus instability will be in place daily, and subtle shortwaves will undoubtedly be present. We are in the peak of severe climatology for SW KS, so am confident strong to severe thunderstorms will be present at times during the long term. Mesoscale interactions, and impacts from previous day`s convection and outflows, will be important. Beneficial rainfall is expected Tuesday through Saturday, with 12z EPS probability of cumulative qpf > 0.50 inch over the five day period near 50% along the KS/CO border, ranging to near 100% over the eastern zones. Whatever rain we can get will be welcomed, with much of SW KS once again mired in severe drought conditions. With cloud cover and moisture prevailing, and easterly upslope components persisting, afternoon temperatures will be held to near normal for late May, in the lower 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 545 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Northwest winds will diminish to 5 to 8 kts by 01z with the loss of daytime heating. VFR conditions will prevail with any cloud AOA060 dissipating at sunset. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Finch