131
FXXX12 KWNP 270031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 May 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3691 (N29E48,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the strongest event of the period, a
C7.4/Sf flare at 26/1706 UTC. The region continued to grow in number of
spots and penumbral area. Newly numbered region 3693 (N06E35, Cro/beta)
was quiet. The remaining numbered active regions on the visible disk
were either stable or in gradual decay. New Regions 3694 (S12E45,
Axx/alpha), 3695 (N27E60, Bxo/beta) and 3696 (N09E66, Hrx/alpha) were
numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low, with a chance of M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), over 27-29 May.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to
moderate levels over 27-29 May, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels. Total magnetic field
strength was mostly between 4-6 nT. The Bz component reached as far
south as -6 nT. A gradual increase was observed to near 9 nT near the
end of the UT day. Solar wind speeds briefly reached as high as 450 km/s
but declined to ~350 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Outside of
26/1200-1500 UTC, phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive
sector.

.Forecast...
Enhancements in solar wind parameters are possible over 27-28 May due to
coronal hole influence. Additional enhancements may occur early on 27
May due to periphery of a passing CME that left the Sun on 23 May.
Mostly nominal conditions are likely on 29 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels on 27-28 May
due to potential combined effects from a coronal hole and a the
periphery of a passing CME. Mostly quiet levels are likely on 29 May.