Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
906 FXXX12 KWNP 191231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 19 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at moderate levels as Region 3712 (S24W30, Ekc/Beta-Gamma-Delta) produced an M1.1 flare at 18/1220 UTC, and Region 3711 (S11W74, Axx/Alpha) added an M1.1/Sf at 19/0638 UTC as it made its way to the western limb. Separation was observed in the intermediate and trailer spots of Region 3712, yet it maintained a weak delta configuration in its interior spots. Region 3713 (S15W19, Ekc/Beta-Gamma) continued to evolve and exhibited moderate growth in its intermediate and leader spots, but has only produced low level C-class flares recently. Region 3716 (N10W26, Dki/Beta-Gamma) showed consolidation in its leader spots, as well as decay in its intermediate and trailer spots. New Region 3718 (N15E06, Dao/Beta) developed during the period and was numbered, but remained mostly quiet. An approximate 8 degree filament structure centered near N45W30 was observed lifting off at 18/1610 UTC. At 18/1636 UTC a prominence structure was also observed lifting off in the NW. The CME off the NW limb beginning at 18/1724 UTC appears to be a combination of the two events. Modelling and analysis of these events deemed both to be north of the ecliptic plane with no impacts expected at Earth. Additionally, at approximately 19/0910 UTC, coronal dimming was observed just north of Region 3718 as an approximately seven degree long filament disappeared in GONG H-Alpha imagery. Analysis will be conducted as LASCO coronagraph imagery becomes available. At present, no known CMEs are expected to have an Earth-directed component. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 19-21 Jun, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater), due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3712, Region 3713, and Region 3716. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 21 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach up to S1 (Minor) levels on 19-21 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment reflected continued, yet weakening, CH HSS influences. Total field averaged near 5 nT, the Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT, and wind speeds decreased from just over 600 km/s to near 535 km/s. .Forecast... A gradual decline in solar wind enhancements is expected to finish out 19 Jun as the positive polarity CH HSS moves from its geoeffective position. Conditions are anticipated to return to near background levels by 20 Jun. A negative polarity coronal hole is set to move into a likely geoeffective position on 21 Jun, increasing the chances for additional enhancements in the solar wind environment. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to a mildly disturbed solar wind environment. .Forecast... Unsettled to active levels are still possible for the remainder of 19 Jun, with a return to mostly quiet conditions by 20 Jun as CH HSS effects diminish. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 21 Jun with the arrival of the CH HSS mentioned in the solar wind forecast.