944
FXXX12 KWNP 200031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Jun 20 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at moderate levels as Region 3711 (S11W81,
Axx/Alpha) produced an M1.1/Sf at 19/0638 UTC as it made its way to the
western limb. Region 3713 (S15W27, Ekc/Beta-Gamma-Delta) continued to
evolve and exhibited moderate growth in its intermediate and leader
spots, but has only produced low level C-class flares recently. Region
3712 (S24W39, Ekc/Beta-Gamma-Delta), the largest region on the disk,
displayed separation in the intermediate and trailer spots, but was
quiet this period. Region 3716 (N10W32, Dki/Beta-Gamma) showed
consolidation in its leader spots, as well as growth in its intermediate
and trailer spots. New Regions 3718 (N15E13, Cro/Beta), 3719 (S12E68,
Cro/Beta) and 3720 (S04E77, Dao/Beta) were numbered this period, but
remained mostly quiet.

At approximately 19/0910 UTC, coronal dimming was observed just north of
Region 3718 as an approximately seven degree long filament disappeared
in GONG H-Alpha imagery. Analysis will be conducted as LASCO coronagraph
imagery becomes available. At present, no known CMEs are expected to
have an Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 20-22 Jun, with a
slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater), due primarily to the
flare potential of Regions 3712, 3713 and 3716.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels through 22 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to reach up to S1 (Minor) levels on 20-22 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment reflected continued, yet weakening, CH HSS
influences. Total field averaged near 4 nT, the Bz component varied
between +/- 5 nT and wind speeds decreased from 575 km/s to near 490
km/s during the period. The phi angle was in a mostly positive
orientation.

.Forecast...
A gradual decline in solar wind enhancements is expected on 20 Jun. A
negative polarity coronal hole is likely to move into a geoeffective
position on 21 and 22 Jun, increasing the chances for additional
enhancements in the solar wind environment.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to a
mildly disturbed solar wind environment.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 20 Jun as CH HSS effects
diminish. Unsettled conditions are expected on 21 and 22 Jun, with
active levels possible on 22 Jun, with the arrival of the CH HSS
mentioned in the solar wind forecast.