661
FXUS63 KDLH 070544
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers will end this evening, winds up to 20 mph
  could continue tonight.

- Dry and windy conditions for Friday.

- Active weather continues for the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Today and Tonight:

Northwesterly flow is causing average wind speeds of around 15
mph with gusts of 25-30 mph across the Northland this afternoon.
The system that brought storms yesterday has since moved east,
bringing faster synoptic-scale winds due to tightening pressure
gradients being mixed down to the surface. Recent and current
precipitation has caused high rivers to take on more, with the
Nemadji and Kettle rivers at high levels. Flow is decreasing for
numerous basins like the Knife, St. Louis, Nemadji, and St.
Croix rivers with no major increases expected for today and
tomorrow. There are spotty rain showers happening today, with
more possible overnight. Severe possibilities are very minimal
as CAPE values wont exceed far past 500 J/kg and dewpoints are
in the high 40s. Precipitation amounts will not exceed a few
tenths of an inch at most.

Tomorrow:

The winds are expected to slightly decrease tomorrow as the low
continues to evacuate eastward, with northwesterly/westerly
winds averaging in the 10-15 mph range, with some 20-30 mph
gusts still possible. With the continued northwest flow aloft, a
small shortwave ridge will attempt to build, however a
disturbance will quickly arrive late Friday afternoon and
evening with some rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.
Overnight Friday, a moisture injection from the south and
possibly the Pacific northwest will bring increases in
precipitable water, increasing chances for showers and storms
overnight Friday. There is very little chance for severe weather
with dewpoints in the 40s and very low CAPE.

This Weekend into Next Week:

The departing low will cause similar conditions as today on
Saturday. Diurnal showers under cyclonic flow will lead to
scattered rain showers throughout the Northland. Global models
are in disagreement of whether this will linger for Sunday or
move off to the east. Oscillating wet and dry days will
continue into next week. West to northwest flow with embedded
shortwaves will lead to multiple chances for precipitation
throughout the weekend. By next week, models already start to
diverge on positions of upper troughs and ridges. So timing for
precipitation versus dry conditions are very uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period with upper level
ridging moving in on Friday. A tight pressure gradient will keep
winds breezy tonight and through Friday until evening when they
become lighter ahead of an approaching upper level trough that
will bring some rain chances to western terminals starting late
Friday evening (30-50% chance).

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Lingering isolated showers/sprinkles continue into the early
overnight hours. Winds briefly fall below small craft advisory
levels from late evening into tonight before increasing once
again for Friday. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely
be needed in the morning. Friday will be dry, before another
system brings light showers to western Lake Superior. The system
will depart on Saturday and will lead to gusty conditions, but
only up to 20 kts.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...Rothstein