Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
327 FXUS63 KDVN 172337 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 637 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The heat is on for the remainder of the day through Tuesday, as a Heat Advisory continues across the entire area - Some isolated showers and storms remain possible this afternoon - Relief from the heat will come for some in the form of a cold front that will sink southeastward Tuesday night/Wednesday - The pattern will remain active for Wednesday through the upcoming weekend, with periodic chances of showers and storms && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Heat and humidity are in full force across our area, thanks to a dominant upper-level high pressure and ridging across the eastern CONUS. As of 2 PM this afternoon, temperatures across the area have reached into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat indices in the middle/upper 90s to near 100 degrees in isolated spots. The synoptic pattern doesn`t change much tonight through Tuesday, with the upper ridge remaining strong and high theta-e values settled in place. Overnight lows won`t fall much to provide relief from the heat, with temperatures expected in the lower to middle 70s. In fact, the ECMWF EFI for low temperatures has values between 0.7 to 0.9 for tonight, indicating unusually warm low temperatures. Tuesday might be a hair cooler than today, but still highs should warm into the lower to middle 90s with heat indices in the middle/upper 90s to near 100 degrees. No matter how you slice it, it will continue to be hot, so make sure you`re taking extra precautions to protect yourself from the heat. With overnight temperatures remaining nearly 15 degrees above seasonal averages, and record warm low temperatures on the table, even the relief from the heat overnight will be relatively minimal. As far as chances of showers and storms are concerned, we aren`t looking at any potent mechanism for convective initiation like we had yesterday with the MCV. However, with the heat and humidity as high as it is, instability is rather high currently, with values of SBCAPE around 1500 to 2500 J/kg and eroding SBCIN, some isolated instability-driven storms could develop. Effective shear is very minimal if not non-existent, so any storms that develop this afternoon shouldn`t be able to become sustained. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 As we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday, a pattern shift will occur, with the upper ridge gradually breaking down and an upper- level longwave trough forming over the Intermountain West states. An attendant cold front will sink southward Tuesday night and early Wednesday, which the latest CAMs show showers and thunderstorms increasing across our northeastern Iowa counties. Both the deep- layer shear and instability profiles appear to be meager along the front, so there is no concern for any strong to severe storms with it. There is some uncertainty on just how far south the front will get, so we will have to watch and make adjustments, but the NBM has 30 to 70 percent chances of precipitation before 1 PM Wednesday. Our area appears to remain in the right location for periodic chances of showers and storms through the end of the week, with continued shortwave ridging through the end of the long-term period. Strong to severe storm threat appears very low, given continued meager values of instability and shear. In fact, the CSU machine- learning severe probs continue to indicate either very low probabilities or none at all for this period. Temperatures will be greatly dependent on where showers and storms form. For locations that stay dry, very warm temperatures will continue, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the end of the week. For those that get under showers/storms, look to cool down to the 70s and lower 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The primary concerns for the TAFs are gusty southerly winds, especially during the day Tuesday, though thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out for mainly DBQ later this evening. A strengthening front draped just south of the Iowa-Minnesota border into southern Wisconsin will remain nearly stationary through Tuesday morning. Southerly winds to the south of this front should sporadically gust to over 20 kt this evening and more frequently into the pre-dawn hours. Along the front itself, thunderstorms are favored to fester through the evening. While it is low confidence, some of these may develop or migrate southeastward to around DBQ (10 percent chance). If this occurs, between the 02Z-06Z window would be favored. Also along the front overnight into early Tuesday morning, some low cloud development within the most low-levels is favored, and should at least be close to DBQ. Southerly gusts on Tuesday are forecast to exceed 25 kt regularly with sporadic 30+ kt gusts probable at CID and DBQ. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Record Warm Minimum Temperatures: June 18: KDBQ: 74/1921 KMLI: 77/2018 June 19: KDBQ: 76/1931 KMLI: 78/1953 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ040>042-051>054- 063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ001-002-007-009- 015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ009-010. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schultz LONG TERM...Schultz AVIATION...Friedlein CLIMATE...Schultz/Uttech