442
FXUS63 KDVN 100521
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1221 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant temperatures through Monday.

- Turning hot and humid by mid week.

- SLGT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Tonight and Monday: Delightful late spring weather as high
pressure will be settling across the area. The very dry airmass
and rather light winds will allow for a comfortable night with
clear skies. Lows should bottom out in the lower to mid 50s,
similar to early this morning.

On Monday, sunny skies and continued dry airmass will allow for
afternoon temperatures to nicely rebound into the lower to mid
70s. These readings are actually about 5 degrees Below normal
for early June. North winds will be in the 10 to 15 mph range.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Tuesday through Thursday: Strong active zonal flow develops
across the northern United States, pulling warmer air into the
forecast area. Temperatures will be turning hot and also it will
become more humid as the week progresses. Readings will be
pushing to around 90 at most locations later in the week, with
dewpoints into the 60s.

Severe threat Thursday: Global models indicate a cold front
arriving during the afternoon and evening. With hot, moist, and
very unstable airmass in place, organized thunderstorms should
erupt ahead of the front. SPC has a SLGT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for
severe storms across the entire forecast area. Mid level winds
increase to 50+ KT so deep layer shear will be at least moderate
if not strong. This suggests damaging winds will be the main
threat. The tornado risk is yet to be determined.

Friday through Saturday: Brief northwest flow should bring
somewhat cooler and less humid air into the area, along with dry
weather. Highs will be in the 80s.

Sunday: Another upper level trough swings out of the Rockies and
into the Upper Midwest. This will be the next chance of
thunderstorms. However, way too early to determine the severe
threat from these storms. Hot and humid conditions return with
some locations pushing into the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with generally
light north winds and very good visibility. A period of lower
VFR clouds will affect DBQ through the early morning hours,
around 3500 AGL for a cig, but this band is thinning out, and
should not greatly affect locations to the south. Also, a
reporting problem at the DBQ airport has limited observations
potentially until the FAA tower opens in the morning, thus, I
have "AMD NOT SKED" for DBQ...meaning no amendments will be
issued tonight.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Ervin