646
FXUS63 KDVN 062329
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
629 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Wind Advisory is in effect until 6 PM for counties west of
  the Mississippi River and along and north of Interstate 80.
  Expect winds to gust up 45 to 50 MPH. Blowing dust will lead
  to sudden reductions in visibility.

- Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal through
  Tuesday with precipitation also below normal.

- There are nearly daily weak upper level disturbances aloft
  that pose a low risk (10- 20%) of diurnal showers from
  Saturday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

An upper level low and surface low are evident on satellite
imagery sitting across the Upper Great Lakes. High pressure is
centered from central Montana southeastward into western
Nebraska. This is resulting in a tight pressure gradient across
the Upper Midwest. Deeper mixing has occurred through much of
the day which has allowed for stronger winds and warmer
temperatures. Northwest winds were sustained across the area at
20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 40 to 50 MPH. The strongest winds
gusts (45 to 50 mph) have occurred along and north of
Interstate 80 in Iowa. Temperatures at 2 PM range from 75
degrees at KIIB and KFEP to 82 degrees at Macomb. Due to the
mixing, relative humidities have dropped to 15 to 30 percent.

THe wind advisory remains in effect until 6 PM this evening.
Model soundings earlier showed little change in winds at the top
of the mixed layer through the day suggesting that winds will
remain gusty into the early evening. However model guidance is
showing a steady reduction in wind speeds during the late
afternoon and early evening with winds of 5 to 10 MPH after 8
PM and the current forecast mimics that thinking. Quiet weather
is expected overnight as high pressure passes to our southwest
with low temperatures in the lower to mid 50s.

Another quiet day is forecast on Friday with the region still
under the influence of high pressure to our southeast. It will
be another breezy day with northwest winds of 10 to 20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH through the day. High temperatures on Friday
are forecast to range from the lower 70s in far northwest
Illinois to the lower 80s in far northeast Missouri.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Friday night through Wednesday
Assessment...high confidence on slight below normal temperatures
through Tuesday. Low to medium confidence regarding rain chances.

Northwest flow will persist across the Midwest through Tuesday
helping to keep temperatures slightly below normal. Breezy
conditions are expected over the weekend.

Weak upper level disturbances will be moving through the flow aloft
on a daily basis. The overall timing of the disturbances point to
the late morning and afternoon hours. As always moisture will be the
determining factor on whether or not any disturbance produces any
rain.

Thus there is the potential for some diurnal showers and maybe a
thunderstorm Saturday through Wednesday. Coverage will be low at 10
to 20 percent. Thus while there is a low risk of rain each day, the
key message is that a vast majority of the area will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Expect VFR conditions at all terminals through the upcoming TAF
period. Gusty northwest winds around 25-40 kts initially will
subside to around or below 10 kts this evening. Wind gusts
around 20-25 kts will return mid-morning Friday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Speck