619
FXUS63 KDVN 101024
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
524 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant temperatures through tonight.

- Turning hot and humid by mid week.

- MRGL Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms Tuesday AND
  Wednesday (northwest).

- SLGT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Early today, a secondary cold front is bringing a band of rather
high based stratus southward. This should not last too long today,
given that the clearing north edge is moving faster than the
south edge, resulting an a gradual narrowing of the band of
clouds. This cloud band though could result in a complicated
"warm" band of temperatures in an otherwise cool night. We will
handle that trend in updates, as it will affect the diurnal
curve today.

The bulk of the day will be mostly sunny today, and like past days,
we`re expecting to mix deeply, and see both winds increasing, and
humidity dropping through the day.  Despite highs topping out in the
lower 70s north to mid 70s central and south, the dewpoints mixing
down to the upper 30s to low 40s will bring another day of humidity
levels dropping under 30% at times. Wind gusts should be lower than
yesterday, with max potentially in the northeast counties around 25
mph today.

Tonight, clear and quiet (near calm) conditions will lead to a
strong radiational cooling night, with lows in the upper 40s to
lower 50s.   Tuesday will see a quick transition to strong warm
advection, with dewpoints remaining low in the 40s to low 50s
through the afternoon. This will again result in a warm, breezy day,
with humidity dropping to the 30-40% range through the afternoon
hours.

SPC has introduced a MRGL Risk (level 1 of 5) for Tuesday / Tuesday
night, as a short wave rides up over the Midwest in southwest flow
aloft. This is rather contingent on cells initiating in a marginally
moist atmosphere Tuesday evening to our west, and tracking into the
CWA. The HRRR seems to be the most bullish on this potential, with
most other models far less aggressive.  Shear looks to be sufficient
to have hail and gusty winds possible...but the moisture return to
the low 60s Td on the HRRR seems a low possibility given our dry top
soil already in place. Anyhow, will message this threat, and
Thursday`s in the HWO and graphics today.   Pops for rainfall
Tuesday afternoon and night remain under 20%...so don`t be too
surprised to see spotty coverage of storms if they form.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Tuesday through Thursday: Strong active zonal flow develops
across the northern United States, pulling warmer air into the
forecast area. Temperatures will be turning hot and also it will
become more humid as the week progresses. Readings will be
pushing to around 90 at most locations later in the week, with
dewpoints into the 60s.

Severe threat Thursday: Global models indicate a cold front
arriving during the afternoon and evening. With hot, moist, and
very unstable airmass in place, organized thunderstorms should
erupt ahead of the front. SPC has a SLGT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for
severe storms across the entire forecast area. Mid level winds
increase to 50+ KT so deep layer shear will be at least moderate
if not strong. This suggests damaging winds will be the main
threat. The tornado risk is yet to be determined.

Friday through Saturday: Brief northwest flow should bring
somewhat cooler and less humid air into the area, along with dry
weather. Highs will be in the 80s.

Sunday: Another upper level trough swings out of the Rockies and
into the Upper Midwest. This will be the next chance of
thunderstorms. However, way too early to determine the severe
threat from these storms. Hot and humid conditions return with
some locations pushing into the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with generally
light north winds and very good visibility. A band of higher
based stratus is thinning over Illinois, and should not affect
terminals past 14z. Also, a reporting problem at the DBQ
airport has limited observations potentially until the FAA tower
opens in the morning, thus, I have "AMD NOT SKED" for
DBQ...meaning no amendments will be issued tonight.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Ervin