813
FXUS63 KDVN 031903
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
203 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active summer-like pattern early this week with warm/muggy
conditions  and multiple chances of showers and storms. Strong to a
few severe storms possible this afternoon/evening, and again Tuesday
PM/evening.

- Mainly dry mid week into the weekend with pleasant temperatures
and  lower humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A true summertime air mass in place over the region today, with heat
and humidity widespread in the region.  Pwat values are around the
90th percentile, 1.4 to 1.6", but forcing is weak and this is
resulting in an over-forecast of Pops by the NBM in general. The
forcing today within this warm sector has been on the southern flank
of the MCV which is moving through Wisconsin today. That has
provided enough forcing to get several rounds of storms that have
been strong at times going in our northern tier of counties (CAPE
values are 2500-3000).  Farther south, with less forcing, we`ve
bubbled up some towering cumulus, and a couple orphan anvil storms,
but the lack of convergence and shear has kept this activity from
getting going. Isolated 1" + rains are expected with storms in the
north today.

Looking upstream in this moist flow, another significant MCV is
located in central KS, and models do bring that up through the flow
tonight, reaching our south towards morning. So, after the evening
chance for storms, mainly north, we`ll probably be dry tonight, with
some threat moving back in by morning south.  It`ll be warm and
humid, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday, the MCV could bring persistent showers and storms to the
area, assuming it maintains it`s circulation, which is not something
we have high confidence in.  It should at least provide cloud cover,
keeping highs in the lower to mid 80s again. These slow moving storm
chances south, will again provide a low confidence placement, but
high confidence on heavy rain potential with the very moist air mass
in place.

Looking at Tuesday night, a later evening arrival of the cold front
is now forecast, with most severe weather parameters waning before
they enter our CWA.  This still looks like a widespread line as is
moves through our area, but with a widespread wind event does not
appear likely. Another QPF of 0.25 to 0.75 is expected with the
line, which is lower than earlier forecasts and trending downward,
due to the decaying nature of the line as is moves through.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Wednesday through early next week continue to look beautiful and
comfortable. There could be a few passing showers and storms in the
cyclonic flow aloft through Wednesday night, but following that,
mainly dry weather is expected through the next 5-6 days. Highs in
the 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 50s to 60s should last into
early next week!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Widely scattered showers and storms will continue to move
northeast around 40 mph north of Highway 30 early this
afternoon. Additional very widely scattered storms will possibly
form during the afternoon and evening hours and move northeast
around 25 mph. For now, there is a very low chance at any one
TAF site through the next 24 hours, except for near DBQ early
this afternoon. South winds of 10 to 20 kts will continue
through the period, with a cold front arriving Tuesday night,
with a widespread thunderstorm chance with it. The summery,
chaotic storms are possible until the front arrives, with that
widespread line of storms Tuesday night. Outside of storms, VFR
weather is expected through the period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin