Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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382 ACUS01 KWNS 280100 SWODY1 SPC AC 280059 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF TEXAS...THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Plains, Southeast, and Mid Atlantic. ...OK/TX... Isolated supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central into northeast TX. Strong to extreme instability and favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support a threat of hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches in diameter), along with localized severe gusts. The ongoing discrete supercell activity will likely tend to decrease with time later tonight, as MLCINH begins to increase with the onset of nocturnal cooling. Farther south, it remains possible that storm clusters currently over northern Mexico will move into parts of south-central into deep south TX later tonight, posing an isolated threat of hail and severe gusts before weakening. See MCD 1027 for more information. Overnight, elevated convection may develop across parts of north TX into OK, near/north of a nearly stationary surface boundary. The coverage and organization of this late development remains uncertain, but moderate to strong elevated buoyancy will support at least isolated hail with the strongest storms. ...South AL/GA into north FL and the FL Peninsula... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms are ongoing this evening across parts of south AL/GA and extreme north FL. Rich low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support some threat for damaging wind and hail for much of the evening as storms spread southeastward. See MCD 1026 for more information. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... Widely scattered storms are expected to continue through the evening from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across the region. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will continue to support some threat for isolated hail and damaging wind and perhaps a tornado, before storm coverage and intensity wanes later tonight. See MCD 1025 for more information. ..Dean.. 05/28/2024 $$