Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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629 ACUS01 KWNS 260602 SWODY1 SPC AC 260600 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...KENTUCKY...NORTHERN TENNESSEE...EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, later today into tonight. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible from parts of east-central Missouri into central/southern Illinois and Indiana, much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A complex but potentially significant severe weather episode is expected later today, with the greatest threat currently expected from parts of lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards will be possible, including some threat for widespread damaging winds, isolated to scattered very large hail, and potentially a few strong tornadoes. A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough (with multiple embedded shortwaves) will move from the central CONUS eastward into parts of the Midwest and OH/MS/TN Valleys through the day. A surface cyclone initially centered over eastern KS will move eastward across MO through the day, before turning northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region later tonight. A trailing cold front will move southeastward across the Ozarks region and eventually into the Mid South. A warm front initially near the OH Valley region may move northward during the day, though its progress may be limited by the effects of potentially widespread convection across the region. ...Parts of MO/AR eastward into the OH/TN Valleys... The presence of intense and widespread convection across eastern portions of the central/southern Plains late Saturday night results in considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of severe potential during the D1/Sunday period. A rather large storm cluster and possible MCS may be ongoing later this morning across parts of MO and northern AR, with some embedded supercell potential. Moderate to locally strong instability and favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will support some potential for all severe hazards with the early-morning convection. While there may be some weakening trend through the morning, reintensification of ongoing storms, and/or development along the attendant outflow, will be possible by late morning into the afternoon. There may be some tendency toward a clustered storm mode, but wind profiles will remain favorable for supercells, and an increasing threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may evolve during the afternoon across parts of OH Valley and potentially into portions of the Mid South/TN Valley region. Farther west, a shortwave embedded within the large-scale trough is forecast to approach parts of the mid MS Valley late this afternoon into the evening, in conjunction with the primary surface low. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near the remnant outflow generated by morning convection, as well as along the trailing cold front. The environment across the effective warm sector (east of the cold front and along/south of the anticipated outflow boundary) will remain favorable for organized convection, and initial supercell development could be accompanied by a threat for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. There will be some strong tornado potential, especially if notable outflow modification can occur through the day, though the most favored tornado corridor remains uncertain at this time. Eventual development of a large QLCS will be possible tonight along/east of the surface-low track and trailing cold front, with a continued threat for damaging wind, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes into a larger portion of the OH/TN Valleys and Mid South. ...Northern IL into southeast WI... A secondary area of modest pre-frontal destabilization may develop this afternoon from northern IL into southeast WI. Modest but sufficient deep-layer flow/shear will support some storm organization, and a few stronger storms capable of hail and locally strong wind gusts may develop from afternoon into the early evening. ...Eastern KS into western MO... Lingering moisture/instability and favorable deep-layer shear behind the cold front could support isolated strong storm development late this afternoon into the evening from eastern KS into western MO. Some threat for hail and locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible within this post-frontal regime. ...Carolina Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic... There is some potential for early-day convection to persist and eventually spread across the southern Appalachians into parts of the Carolina Piedmont and vicinity by late afternoon or evening. While the environment will tend to be less favorable with southeastward extent, some threat for damaging wind and/or isolated hail could spread into the region later in the day. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/26/2024 $$