649
ACUS01 KWNS 140102
SWODY1
SPC AC 140100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST
KS...NORTHERN MO...WESTERN/CENTRAL IL...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from parts of the
central and southern Great Plains into the Midwest. Large to very
large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two are possible.

...Central/southern Great Plains into the Midwest...
A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing this evening
from northern MO into west-central IL. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE
greater than 2500 J/kg) and moderate west-northwesterly deep-layer
shear will continue to support supercells within the ongoing cluster
for a few hours this evening, with a threat of large to very large
hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado.

Farther west, deep-layer shear is more marginal across the central
Great Plains, but sufficient to support severe-storm potential in
the presence of strong buoyancy. The strongest cells will remain
capable of producing large hail this evening, though there may be
some tendency for modest upscale growth, with a threat of severe
gusts of 60-80 mph as convection moves through a very warm and well
mixed environment.

Between the two primary areas of convection, additional development
remains possible along a front within a conditionally favorable
environment from northeast KS into northwest MO. Any storms that can
mature and develop in this region would also pose a threat of large
to very large hail and severe gusts.

..Dean.. 06/14/2024

$$