Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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090 ACUS01 KWNS 081151 SWODY1 SPC AC 081150 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon then spread toward central Kansas during the evening. Isolated severe storms may also occur across the Ozarks vicinity. ...CO/KS... Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough over northern UT. This feature will track eastward today, spreading large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture into the high plains of CO. A combination of daytime heating and the approaching upper system will lead to scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon from southeast WY into the foothills of northern CO. Storms will intensify and track east-southeastward in the vicinity of a surface boundary that will extend into western KS. Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds will be possible for the first few hours of the event, with upscale organization into a linear MCS expected as the storms move into KS. A consensus of CAM solutions show the potential for rather widespread damaging winds during the evening before storms weaken over central KS after midnight. ...Central/Southern MO... A large but decaying MCS is currently moving across MO. Recent model guidance suggests that rapid moisture return will occur behind this system, with a reservoir of low 70s dewpoints and strong afternoon heating expected. This will yield MLCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg, along with faster westerly flow aloft. Low-level forcing mechanisms will be weak, and there is uncertainty where the axis of convective development will occur. But it appears likely that scattered afternoon supercell storms will be possible, capable of large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/08/2024 $$