Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
122 ACUS01 KWNS 050545 SWODY1 SPC AC 050544 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the ArkLaMiss. ...Synopsis... A large mid-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today with a downstream trough amplifying across the Upper Midwest. A cold front will extend from a surface low in southern Manitoba across the western Great Lakes and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this morning and move east across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the day. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest as strong height falls associated with the amplifying mid-level trough overspread the region. Cooling temperatures aloft and at least some low-level moisture recovery should sufficiently destabilize the region for strong updrafts. Strong unidirectional westerly flow will increase from 30 knots at 700mb to 60 knots at 500mb and nearly 100 knots at 300mb. This wind profile will support organized updrafts with the potential for large hail and particularly wind, given the steep low-level lapse rates and the strong unidirectional flow. ...East Texas to the ArkLaMiss... The MCS currently near the Red River at 06Z is expected to continue through the early morning hours and exist from east Texas to northern Louisiana by 12Z. Some isolated severe wind gusts are possible through the morning hours given the very moist airmass in place and the well established cold pool associated with the MCS. However, expect it to continue to weaken through the morning as it moves toward increasingly warm 700mb temperatures and weakening shear with the MCS eventually moving into the Gulf of Mexico near mid-day. The severe threat may continue into the afternoon across eastern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi where at least some heating may result in destabilization. However, relatively weak shear should limit a greater potential or the threat for more than isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Edwards Plateau into portions of Deep South Texas... An outflow boundary from the overnight MCS across eastern Texas will likely stall somewhere near central Texas in a region where a very moist airmass and extreme instability will be present. Overall height rises will not be favorable for thunderstorm development. However, the extension of a mid-level (likely convectively modified) shortwave trough is expected to move southeast across central/eastern Texas during the afternoon. This trough may provide enough support, when combined with low-level convergence along any remnant outflow boundary, for isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. Very weak flow (less than 20 knots) in the vertical wind profile, should mitigate more than isolated damaging wind/large hail threat with this activity. ...Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes... A very moist airmass across the lower-Ohio River valley will advect north through the day today with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints expected ahead of the cold front from the Ohio River to eastern Michigan by late morning. Only minimal heating will be required for convective initiation today. This lack of an EML or greater capping will limit the overall threat with scattered thunderstorm development expected along and ahead of the cold front by midday. Greater forcing along the cold front may be needed for stronger storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Widespread cloud cover is expected across northern Virginia and the DelMarVa as a moist airmass advects into the region. Any minimal heating which occurs will be sufficient for scattered storm development during the afternoon. Very weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) should limit more robust updraft development. However, if any stronger/ more sustained storms can develop, there will be some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado as a small, but favorably curved, low-level hodograph will be present across this region. ...Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop amid weak height falls and moderate instability across New Hampshire and southern/central Maine this afternoon. Straight hodographs and strengthening northwesterly flow above 500mb may be sufficient for some storm organization including transient supercell structures capable of large hail. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/05/2024 $$