040
ACUS02 KWNS 020555
SWODY2
SPC AC 020553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of
the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on
Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central
CONUS early Monday morning, ahead of shortwave trough expected to
progress from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High Plains.
One or more vorticity maxima could exist from OK into the Upper
Midwest, generated by overnight MCS activity. The most substantial
overnight MCS is expected to move across NE, with the vorticity
maximum associated with this activity likely near the Mid MO Valley
vicinity. Another MCV could be over southeast OK/Arklatex vicinity.
Additionally, thunderstorms may be ongoing across central OK early
Monday morning.

A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the
central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of
notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features, such as
the previously mentioned vorticity maxima, acting as the primary
impetus for thunderstorm development. Afternoon thunderstorm
initiation currently appears most likely across southern WI and
northern IL, downstream of the Mid MO Valley MCV. Moderate buoyancy
and vertical shear across this region could support a few strong to
severe storms.

More uncertainty exists farther south from central/southern MO into
southern OK and the Arklatex (and potentially as far south as
southeast TX). A majority of the CAM guidance has thunderstorm
activity in this area, with the early morning storms over central OK
gradually strengthening as they move southeastward where ample
low-level moisture will support strong buoyancy. Given the linear
storm mode, damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat.
Limited predictability of this evolution merits keeping severe
probabilities low with this forecast. Isolated severe thunderstorms
are also possible along the dryline from western OK into the Edwards
Plateau/western TX Hill Country. Any mature convection along the
dryline should be supercellular, with a conditional threat for very
large hail and damaging gusts.

A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern
Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front
will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated
thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the
overall severe potential.

..Mosier.. 06/02/2024

$$