828
FXUS63 KEAX 041724
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible this evening with damaging winds and large
  hail the main hazards.

- Generally quiet weather the rest of the week with temperatures
  near to slightly above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Today - Tonight: There are a couple of features that will will
affect our weather over the next 12-18 hours. The first feature is a
slow moving mid and upper-level PV anomaly that is moving into west
central MO as of 07Z. This wave may result in isolated to scattered
showers and storms this morning as it slowly meanders to the east-
northeast. Models are handling this wave poorly so confidence is not
very high that anything will actually develop associated with
this wave. Given this, have a hard time going with PoPs higher
than 15-20%. This activity, if it develops, is not expected to
be strong or severe as potential instability will be lacking and
shear will be weak.

Focus then shifts to the second feature, a stronger shortwave trough
and associated cold front, expected to move through the region this
evening. The previously mentioned PV anomaly will move away from the
area during the afternoon hours and that should help the cloud cover
associated with the wave to thin out or move away with it. That will
then lead to short period of diurnal heating, allowing for strong
instability to build in the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold
front. The area will likely see MLCAPE values between 2000 and 2500
J/kg. There is some possibility MLCAPE could approach 3000 J/kg
but it will depend on how much cloud cover there is and how
much insolation the area receives ahead of the front. That front
will move into far northwestern MO between 22Z and 00Z this
evening. Storms should initiate in eastern/ southeastern NE and
move into the area with the cold front and advance southeastward
through the evening hours as that cold front pushes southeast
through the area. 0-6KM shear of 30- 35 kts, but nearly
unidirectional, will likely lead to multicellular clusters of
convection with occasional development some supercell
characteristics. Steep mid-level lapse rates will support large
hail development. Steep low-level lapse rates, almost showing an
inverted- V look to the soundings, suggest damaging winds will
also be a hazard. Overall coverage of storms looks to be
scattered to widespread but not necessarily a solid line as
they`re moving southeastward through area.

Mid to Late Week: The upper-level pattern across the CONUS will
evolve into a ridge over the southwestern US and a trough/ closed
upper low over the Great Lakes. This leads to a distinct northwest
flow regime over the central to northern Plains, Upper Midwest and
Mid to lower Missouri Valley regions. This region will also have
strong upper-level flow, given the tight height gradient between the
ridge over the Southwest and trough over the Great Lakes. This
pattern is notorious for poorly forecast convective systems that
have a tendency to track further southeast than anticipated. While
the forecast does look quiet through the end of the week, the strong
upper-level flow will need to be watched for shortwaves that
round the ridge in the Northern Rockies to northern High Plains
that may initiate convection upstream that then tracks southeast
with the northwesterly flow aloft. Models may be picking up on
one of those waves late Saturday into Sunday. This leads to the
next chance for precipitation in the forecast Saturday into
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

MVFR stratus has been longer to linger and recent trends suggest at
least brief ceilings will continue early in this forecast. Continued
daytime heating should lead to VFR conditions by 21Z. Have delayed
TS timing by an hour or so based on model consensus though
confidence in coverage is too low to add any prevailing or TEMPO
group despite its relatively near onset time. VFR conditions should
return by 07Z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...WFO TOP