Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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821 FXUS63 KEAX 241723 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1223 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weakening line of thunderstorms will move through portions of NW Missouri this morning. A few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible. - A few strong storms may be possible this afternoon toward northeastern and central Missouri. - Another round of strong to severe storms is likely late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. - Conditional threat for strong to severe storms on Sunday afternoon, especially toward northeastern and central Missouri. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Warm air advection driven discrete storms developed over northern Missouri around 1 AM, with these storms producing large hail likely up to the size of golf balls per radar analysis (only received one report of quarters in Putnam County, however, due to time of day and the storms occurring over rural areas). These storms have finally lifted north of the Iowa border. Meanwhile, the far southern end of a severe squall line over western Iowa into the far southeastern tip of Nebraska is approaching far NW Missouri as of 330 AM, with 60 mph wind gusts possible (although it appears that these are weakening as the enter into Missouri). Would expect the aforementioned line of storms over NW Missouri to continue to weaken as they move east. The cold front should finally move through the KC metro by around 10 am, with some isolated to scattered showers possible along the front. By early afternoon, the front should extend approximately from Kirksville to Sedalia. With daytime heating yielding moderate instability, a few stronger storms could develop along the front, but these would quickly move eastward, departing our county warning area into WFO St. Louis` and WFO Springfield`s area. High temperatures this afternoon should range from the mid 70s over NW Missouri to as warm as the lower 80s over central Missouri thanks to the much slower arrival of the cold front. Attention then turns to Saturday evening/night. West southwest flow at 500 mb remains in place. Another mid level perturbation ejects out of the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains, with a band of 50 to 60 knot 50 mb winds nosing into the region by Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a surface low develops and deepens over western Kansas with a warm front lifting northward through Missouri, with models projecting it to be roughly oriented along Interstate 70 by late Saturday evening. Strong theta e advection will move into the area as the warm front lifts northward, with mid to even upper 60s dewpoints moving northward behind the warm front. Additionally, a very strong SSW oriented low level jet is progged to develop and move over the area by late Saturday evening. Discrete supercells are likely to develop by late Saturday afternoon/early evening over central Oklahoma into central Kansas, with these likely growing upscale into clusters or even a full blown MCS by late Saturday evening as they approach our region from the west. These storms will likely move through the area from west to east in the overnight (after midnight) into the early morning hours of Sunday. As of now, SPC has an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) into the KC metro for damaging thunderstorm wind gusts (30% risk area), with lower probabilities for large hail (15%) and even lower for tornadoes (2%). There will also be a risk for locally moderate to heavy rainfall. Additional development of storms will be possible on Sunday afternoon, especially toward central and northeastern Missouri. However, the overall evolution of the convection from early Sunday morning will likely play a large role in how exactly things play out on Sunday afternoon. The active weather pattern should finally become more tranquil after Sunday, with afternoon high temperatures generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s with generally dry conditions prevailing for Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 There is an area of MVFR ceilings building southward behind a cold front that will affect the terminals this afternoon before either diminishing or moving away. Guidance is not handling this area well so timing of when they move away or dissipate is uncertain. Otherwise, VFR conditions are likely (>70%) through the remainder of the forecast with high pressure moving through. Winds become light overnight and then trend to the southeast tomorrow morning and increase to 10-15 kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Williams AVIATION...CDB