Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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034 FXUS63 KEAX 032340 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 640 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widely scattered showers continue to be possible tonight into tomorrow morning. - A cold front will move through Tuesday bringing a much more focused thunderstorm chances for Tuesday afternoon and evening. There will be a threat of large hail, damaging winds, and flooding rains. - Drier, less humid conditions are expected Wednesday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Satellite imagery today shows a zonal flow is still prevailing across much of the Nation; though looking at the trough making landfall across the Pacific Northwest that wont last long. Closer to home a messy, and broad, shortwave trough is moving east of the Mississippi River. In its wake is at least one MCV that is spinning away over central Kansas this afternoon. In general, some form of MCV has been the norm in response to the various storms that have been sweeping across the region overnight in this low shear/high moisture environment that currently prevails due to the zonal flow. For the rest of today and tonight...we will see the cold pool from the overnight activity continue to push southeast across Oklahoma into Arkansas. This is already resulting in some storms popping up across the Ozarks this afternoon with further development noted working its way north into central Missouri. But, given the environment we just expect a quick burst of heavy rain and the threat of lightning with any of this activity. Looking farther to our west, the MCV over Kansas will likely spin its way slowly northeast into Missouri, but current thoughts are that it wont arrive till after sunset, and with the loss of daytime heating this should limit any further activity from this circulation overnight. Otherwise looking more broadly at tonight, models point at another nocturnal jet ramping up across the western Plains ahead of the Pacific Northwest trough, but this time the jet is expected to break in two with the southern branch focusing more across Oklahoma into southern Kansas. The resulting convection should be south of our area for Tuesday morning, though depending on where the complex sets up we might see some storms shift across portion of east central Kansas into west central Missouri. Tuesday...baring any morning activity, our attention turns to the cold front that will sweep through later in the day. While confidence in the forecast has been low lately owing to the nature of the low shear/high moisture environment, the frontal passage Tuesday gives us definite focus that will drive storm activity Tuesday afternoon and night as there will be significantly more shear to help organize storms. While I don`t have confidence in anyone model solution, the general nature of the front will likely result in isolated storms staring ahead of the front which will then congeal into a squall line. Shear looks to be mostly parallel to the front, thus as the storms move through large hail and damaging winds are thought to be the primary threats. However, local flooding may be an issue as precipitable water values will be running around 1.5 inches. That said, it`s entirely possible that the line of storms will be too progressive to put down too much water in any one location. For Wednesday and the periods beyond...the general pattern adjusts from our zonal flow to a northwest flow as the Pacific Northwest trough takes its time moving east along the USA/Canadian border. There are some weak disturbances that might bring a chance of rain Friday night through Saturday, but otherwise it should be nice with highs in the 80s and lows ranging from the 60s into the 50s, if you go far enough north. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 VFR conditions are likely to persist through the period, although there will be passing mid level cloud cover throughout much of the period. Winds should remain light and generally out of the south. While there will be slight chances throughout much of the period for precipitation, model guidance keeps the terminals clear of precip until after the current TAF period ends (00z Wednesday). && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cutter AVIATION...BMW