979
FXUS66 KEKA 212215
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
315 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions will continue to gradually
settle in today with continued gusty north winds along the coast.
Heat will peak early next week with above average temperatures
pushing out even along the coast.


&&

.DISCUSSION...It has been a sunny day across Northwest California
today as a high pressure continue building across the west coast.
The exception has been along the Mendocino Coast where some
stratus lingered over the beaches through the day. Breezy
northwesterly winds continues over the coastal headlands, but not
as strong as yesterday where gusts up 40 mph where observed.
Winds are anticipated to diminish this evening, while breezy
offshore east-northeast flow component redeveloped. The strongest
offshore flow are anticipated to be primarily over the higher
terrain in Del Norte County, with gusts up to around 35 mph.

The upper ridge will continue to amplify with a 850 mb
temperatures warming through early next week. Temperatures will
peak on Monday and Tuesday when the warmer inland valley
highs from 95 to 105 F. These temperatures will be 10 to 15
degrees above normal and will bring areas of Moderate Heat Risk
Monday and Tuesday. This level of heat affects most individuals
sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling
and/or adequate hydration. Even along the coast will warm up to
low 70`s with the offshore winds on Monday.

Ensembles and deterministic models suggest the aforementioned
ridge will begin to breakdown and slowly shift eastward on Tuesday
as an upper level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. A
cutoff low and a cold front will approaches the area Wednesday
morning. These will bring some light wetting rain right along the
Redwood Coast. Essentially no model members show any rain more
than a few tenth of an inch. Most model ensemble member show no
precipitation beyond coastal drizzle with trough just bringing
generally cool temperatures and increased clouds cover, especially
with a marine layer along the coast. ZVS



&&

.AVIATION...Clear skies are forecast for all terminals
through this TAF period. Patches of low clouds and fog will most
likely confined to the Mendocino coast. Localized stratus may
develop offshore around Humboldt Bay early Sunday morning and impact
KACV with brief IFR ceilings after 14Z. Very marginal low level wind
shear remains possible for small craft after surface winds decouple
and robust NE-E winds to 30kt develop a few thousand feet above mean
sea level this evening and overnight. KUKI will remain clear through
the period, however Sonoma county stratus may creep northward into
Hopland around daybreak Sunday. DB


&&

.MARINE...Strong northerly winds with gusts up to 40 knots are
forecast to continue over the northern outer waters. Another region
of strong northerly wind is expected to occur in the lee of Cape
Mendocino where a few gale gusts to 35 kt are highly probable. This
northerly wind flow pattern with steep northerly wind waves will
continue through the weekend. Steep waves will ease up by Tue of
next week as the thermal trough weakens and shifts inland. A mid
period NW swell will begin to build around mid week, followed by
increasing northerlies and building wind waves toward latter portion
of the week. DB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Elevated to locally critical conditions are
occurring over the higher terrain in zone 203, 204, 264 and 283
this afternoon. Low humidity mostly from 15 to 25 percent across
the interior along with wind gusts up to 20 mph. Offshore flow
will redeveloped later in the evening with the strongest winds
over the higher terrain in Del Norte County.

Building heat and high pressure will continue to enhance fire
weather conditions with daytime highs in the mid 90s to low 100s
and minimum RH in the teens. Overnight recoveries will continue to
worsen at mid and high elevations with recoveries of 20 to 40
percent though Tuesday morning. Daytime winds will continue to be
mostly gentle and terrain driven, but low pressure of the central
california coast combined with high pressure will help enhance
night time northeast flow at high elevations. Northeast wind
gusting up to 25 mph should be expected a high elevations late
each night early this week. This risk will be focused in the usual
areas of Del Norte and Lake Counties but will also include the
usually calmer ridges of Southern Humboldt and northern Mendocino
Counties. Generally more mild conditions will build in late in the
week with increasing marine influence. /ZVS & /JHW


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ450-455.

     Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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