838
AXPZ20 KNHC 061524
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jun 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 115W, south of 15N, and moving westward
at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N
to 11N and between 108W and 119W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guatemala near
13N88W to 10N122W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N122W to beyond
07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 04N to 16N and east of 101W. Similar convection is
noted from 07N to 11N and west of 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad subtropical ridge positioned well west of Baja California
supports moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja California
offshore waters, primarily south of Punta Eugenia. Seas in these
waters are 5-7 ft. North of Punta Eugenia, light to gentle winds
and seas of 6-8 ft due to NW swell. The highest seas are noted
in the far NW waters. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
present in the Gulf of California.

Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
Hazy conditions persist off southern and SW Mexico, including
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern
Mexico and Central America, reducing visibility to around 5 nm at
times.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW-N winds will continue off
Baja California through early next week. The decaying NW swell
will propagate across the offshore waters of Baja California
through Fri, with seas building to 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia
today, and to 6-8 ft between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia on
Fri. Moderate to fresh winds will push through the mountain gaps
and reach the Gulf of California in the night and morning hours
during the next few days. Hazy conditions caused by smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico will continue offshore of SW and
southern Mexico for the next couple of days, reducing visibility
to near 5 nm at times.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual
climatological position for this time of the year. This results
in moderate to fresh SW-W winds in the offshore waters of
Central America and Colombia, especially north of the equator and
including the Gulf of Panama. Stronger winds are likely near
the convection activity in the vicinity of the trough. SW swell
produces seas of 6-8 ft across the area described. Light to
gentle winds and moderate seas are evident in the Gulf of
Papagayo and south of the equator.

Hazy conditions persist over the offshore waters of Guatemala and
El Salvador due to smoke from agricultural fires in southern
Mexico and Central America.

For the forecast, abundant moisture in a SW wind flow will
continue across the Central America and Colombia offshore waters
during the next several days. This will continue to enhance the
convection across the region. Light to gentle winds will prevail
north of 10N, while moderate to fresh winds are expected south
of 10N for the next few days. Meanwhile, hazy conditions caused
by smoke from agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America
may reduce visibilities mainly over the northern Central American
offshore waters for the next couple of days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high pressure system is positioned near 32N138W and
continues to dominate the remainder of the tropical eastern
Pacific. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures associated with a surface trough extending from 30N119W
to 24N123W support moderate to fresh northerly winds north of
24N and west of the trough. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft due
to northerly swell. The highest seas are near 30N126W.

Farther south, moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are
occurring from the ITCZ to 24N and west of 130W. Moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are also noted
south of the monsoon trough and east of 115W. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area while
weakening slowly over the next couple of days. Large NW swell
will continue to propagate across the north waters with seas of
10-11 ft N of 25N. Seas will subside below 8 ft late Sat.
Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 8-10 ft will continue across
the eastern and expand into the central waters near and south of
the monsoon trough into the weekend.

$$
ERA