876
AXPZ20 KNHC 041533
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jun 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed near 107W from 05N to
15N. It is moving westward at about 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N
between 105W and 111W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near
12N87W to 15N104W to 08N128W. The ITCZ extends from 08N128W to
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N to 16N between 83W and 101W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered well northwest of
the region to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over the
Gulf of California is supporting moderate to locally fresh
northwesterly winds across the Baja California waters extending
southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle
winds prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas
are in the 7 to 9 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Norte,
and 6 to 8 ft off Baja California Sur. Elsewhere over the open
waters off Mexico, seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range in southwest
swell. Seas of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf of California. Hazy
conditions persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico and
Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to around 6
nm.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will continue
off the Baja California waters through tonight, with mostly
moderate W to NW winds afterwards. Fresh NW winds are expected to
pulse at night and into the mornings offshore Cabo San Lucas
during the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the open
waters. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW swell will continue off of Baja
California Norte through Thu night before subsiding to below 8 ft
Fri night. Hazy conditions, dense at times, may persist off
southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to
agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central America.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are found N of the monsoon trough around
09N. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail S of the monsoon
trough. Scattered storms are noted across the offshore waters
from Guatemala to Costa Rica in addition to the coast of Colombia
and Gulf of Panama. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range in long-
period S to SW swell. Hazy conditions continue off the northern
Central American coast due to agricultural fires in southern
Mexico and Central America.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of 09N.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected S of 09N for the
next several days. Scattered storms are expected to continue over
the Central America offshore waters through Thu. Meanwhile, hazy
skies from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and
Central America may reduce visibilities mainly over the northern
Central American offshore waters through the rest of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure
within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh NE to
E winds N of the monsoon trough to 25N and W of 120W. Seas with
these winds are in the 8 to 9 ft range in N to NE swell. Gentle
to moderate winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough with seas
of 6 to 8 ft in north to northeast swell across all but the far
NW waters, where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gentle to
moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail S of the monsoon
trough.

For the forecast, seas over the trade wind zone in the western
waters will gradually subside through Wed. Northwesterly swell
will begin to move across the waters N of 23N from Wednesday
through Thu night where it will move from 140W eastward to 120W.
Seas will build 8 to 11 ft, and subside below 8 ft by Fri.

$$
AReinhart