066
AXPZ20 KNHC 190318
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Sep 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W-83W, extending
southward across the Costa Rica/Panamanian border to the eastern
Pacific waters north of 05N. It is moving westward at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection described below covers
the Pacific waters N of 05N and E of 83W.

A tropical wave is along 97W-98W, extending from southeastern
Mexico southward over the eastern Pacific waters to near 04N,
moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection described below is N of 07.5N to coastal Mexico
between 93W and 101W.

A tropical wave is along 114W from from 05N to 19N, moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
described below is from 07.5N to 15.5N between 111W and 118W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11.5N72W to 09.5N82W to
11N88W to 11N116W to 09N128W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N E of 90W, within 90 nm
of the coasts from Costa Rica along 85W to Cabo Corrientes along
107W, from 07.5N to 15.5N between 97W and 120W, and from 07.5N
to 13.5N between 120W and 140W. Scattered to locally numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 11N between
90W and 97W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward into the region
through 30N129W to offshore of Cabo Corrientes near 17N108W.
Over the near and offshore waters of the Baja California
peninsula, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail, except for
fresh winds near the coast between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San
Lazaro. South of 20N through the Revillagigedo Islands similar
winds gradually become N. Seas are generally 4 to 5 ft in
moderate period swell except 6 ft in the areas of fresh winds.
Moderate NW to W winds are across the near shore waters from
Cabo Corrientes to Manzanillo. Light to gentle W to SW winds
cover the remaining waters eastward to Tehuantepec. Seas south of
20N are to 4 to 5 ft in long period SW swell E of 105W and in NW
swell W of 105W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to
shift SW off the coast and over the nearshore waters within 75 nm
of the Mexican coast between Chiapas and Cabo Corrientes. Light
to gentle S to SW winds are over the north and central portions
of the Gulf of California while light and variable winds prevail
over the southern part of the Gulf. Seas are 1 to 2 ft over the
Gulf of California, except 3 to 4 ft in SW swell over the
entrance to the Gulf.

For the forecast, the current Pacific ridge will remain in place
and fluctuate throughout the rest of the week. This pattern will
maintain moderate NW to N winds over the offshore waters of
Baja California tonight, gradually weakening through Thu
afternoon. Expect fresh winds near the coast each evening
through Sat. High pressure will strengthen modestly Fri and Sat
to bring a return to moderate to fresh winds. Variable winds less
than 15 kt are expected across the Gulf of California, except
for pulses of moderate W gap winds across southern portions and
fresh SW gap winds N of 30N each evening and night through Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon
trough, along about 10N. North of the monsoon trough, moderate
or weaker winds are observed. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in SW swell
except to 6 ft south through west of the Galapagos Islands.
Scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms are
within 60 nm of the coasts E of 89W, and offshore from 05N to
09.5N from Colombia westward to beyond 90W.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW to W winds will continue
south of the monsoon trough near 10N, through Thu afternoon,
then begin to freshen offshore through Sat. Seas will build to 5
to 7 ft during this time in a mix of SW swell and westerly wind
swell. Active weather is expected south of 10N Fri into the
weekend. North of 10N, moderate or weaker winds are expected
through Thu evening before the monsoon trough begins to lift
northward, and winds shift to westerly and gradually increase to
gentle to moderate by Sat. Seas will build slightly over the area
waters Thu through Sat as a long fetch of westerly winds sets up
from offshore to 110W, and generates increasing wind waves
moving into the area waters.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extending from a 1029 mb high centered near
41N154W extends east-southeastward to 30N129W to offshore of Cabo
Corrientes near 17N108W. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and the monsoon trough to the south is forcing moderate NE
trades south of about 24N and west of 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
in mixed NE and SE swell south of 17N west of 133W, and 4 to 6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, little overall change is expected over the
open Pacific waters for the next several days as the
aforementioned ridge dominates the region. A weak cold front that
is presently crossing 33N130W will sink southward across 30N
east of 130W tonight into early Thu, then push southeastward
before dissipating by Fri morning. This will induce a slight
decrease in winds during that time period, with winds then
increasing slightly Fri through Sun. SW to W monsoonal winds are
expected to become well established south of 10N and east of
120W starting Thu through Sun, becoming moderate to fresh. Seas
will build to 6 to 8 ft from 03N to 11N east of 120W during that
time.

$$
Stripling