820
AXPZ20 KNHC 192205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central America and southern Mexico Heavy Rainfall Event:
The broad gyre-type cyclonic circulation associated to Tropical
Storm Alberto over the western Gulf of Mexico is drawing abundant
moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the coastal terrain
of southern Mexico and northern sections of Central America. This
can cause life-threatening conditions that include flooding and
mudslides. Areas expecting the heaviest rainfall through Fri
evening continue to be much of El Salvador, western Honduras, far
western Nicaragua and coastal areas of southern Mexico and
southern Guatemala. Please refer to your local meteorological
and emergency management office bulletins for more detailed
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends southwestward from just offshore
the Mexican state of Oaxaca from near 13N97W to 13N114W to
08N127W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that
it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond 06N140W.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm south of
the trough between 97W and 100W, and within 60 nm north of the
trough between 96W and 99W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 60 nm of the trough between 100W and 107W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough
between 106W and 109W, and within 30 nm of the trough between
123W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
an ongoing heavy rainfall event.

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region. Fresh to strong southwest to west monsoonal winds
continue to feed into the broad gyre-type cyclonic circulation
associated to Tropical Storm Alberto currently located over the
western Gulf of Mexico. These persistent winds have produced seas
in the range of 9 to 12 ft across the offshore waters of Oaxaca
and Chiapas States in southern Mexico. Earlier today, a couple of
ship observations located near 15N99W and 14N96W reported
southwest to west 20 to 25 kt winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft.
Meanwhile, gentle to moderate west to northwest winds along with
seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate northwest well persist west of Baja
California and near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh
west to northwest winds along with 6 to 8 ft seas are over the
offshore waters of central Mexico and the rest of southern
Mexico, including waters near Cabo San Lucas. Gentle with locally
moderate southerly winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft dominate the Gulf
of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southwest to west winds, rough
to very rough seas, and numerous showers and thunderstorms, some
possibly strong, will continue to impact the offshore waters of
southern Mexico through Fri, primarily off Chiapas, Oaxaca and
southeastern Guerrero States. Dangerous surf is also anticipated
along the coastal areas of this region until Fri evening.
From Wed evening through Fri morning, fresh to strong northwest
winds and rough seas should develop near Baja California Sur,
including the waters near Cabo San Lucas as pressure gradient
increases.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
heavy rainfall event.

Convergent southwest to west winds along with abundant tropical
moisture are resulting in scattered heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms in the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and
Colombia. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for additional
convection in the region.

The broad gyre-type cyclonic circulation tied to Tropical Storm
Alberto that is over the western Gulf of Mexico continues to pull
in fresh to strong southwest to west winds and seas of 8 to 11
ft over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle
to moderate southwest to west winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas are
found at the rest of the Central America offshore waters. Gentle
to moderate south to southwest winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft
persist off Colombia. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 6 to
8 ft seas in moderate to large southerly swell exist near the
Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southwest to west winds, rough
to very rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms will persist across the offshore waters of northern
Central America through Fri. Dangerous surf is also anticipated
along the coastal areas of this region until Fri evening. Farther
south, moderate to rough seas in moderate to large southerly
swell will continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of
Ecuador into the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region.

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from north of Hawaii
to west of the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated gradient is
supporting moderate to fresh north to northeast winds and seas
of 5 to 7 ft from 07N to 24N west of 131W, and fresh northwest
to north winds north of 28N between 119W and 125W along with
seas of 6 to 7 ft. For the remainder of the waters north of 10N
and waters near the ITCZ, light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas prevail. Near the monsoon trough east of about 120W, mostly
moderate south to southwest winds are present, except for fresh
to strong southwest winds east of 109W. Seas with these winds are
5 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft east of 109W.
West of 120W, generally gentle to moderate southeast winds are
present south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ along with seas of 5
to 6 ft.

For the forecast, little overall changes are expected going
into the early part of the weekend. The fresh to strong southwest
to west winds and very rough seas south of the monsoon trough
are expected to decrease on Fri.

$$
Aguirre