910
AXPZ20 KNHC 190911
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central America and southern Mexico Heavy Rainfall Event:
Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One) over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico continues to sustain convergent monsoonal winds
and draw abundant moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the
coastal terrain of southern Mexico and northern sections of
Central America. This can cause life-threatening conditions that
include flooding and mudslides. Areas expecting the heaviest
rainfall through Fri continue to be El Salvador, western
Honduras, far western Nicaragua and coastal areas of southern
Mexico and Guatemala. Additionally, dangerous surf conditions
will impact these coastal areas through the next few days. Please
refer to your local meteorological and emergency management
office bulletins for more detailed information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends southwestward from just offshore the
Mexican state of Oaxaca through 10N122W to 06N136W. An ITCZ runs
westward from 06N136W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is seen near the trough from north of
12N between 92W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of the trough from 10N to 12N between 87W and 111W, and
near the ITCZ from 05N to 07N west of 136W. This includes the
offshore waters of southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
heavy rainfall event.

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region. Potential Tropical Cyclone One mentioned in the Special
Features section continues to sustain fresh to strong SW to W
winds and 9 to 12 ft seas across the offshore waters of Oaxaca
and Chiapas States in southern Mexico. Meanwhile, gentle to
moderate NW to WNW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate NW
swell persist west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo
Islands. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds along with 6 to 8 ft
seas are evident off central Mexico and the rest of southern
Mexico, including waters near Cabo San Lucas. Gentle with
locally moderate southerly winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft dominate
the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very
rough seas, and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will impact the offshore waters of southern Mexico through Fri,
primarily off Chiapas, Oaxaca and southeastern Guerrero States.
Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the coastal areas of
this region until Fri evening. Lingering NW swell west of Baja
California, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro will gradually
subside through tonight. From Wed evening through Fri morning,
fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas should develop near Baja
California Sur, including the waters near Cabo San Lucas as
pressure gradient increases.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
heavy rainfall event.

Convergent SW to W winds along with abundant tropical moisture
are creating scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms in
the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Refer to
the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for additional convection in the
region.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One mentioned in the Special Features
section is sustaining fresh to strong SW to W winds and seas of
8 to 11 ft over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador.
Gentle to moderate SW to W winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas are
found at the rest of the Central America offshore waters. Gentle
to moderate S to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft persist off
Colombia. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas
in moderate to large southerly swell exist near the Galapagos
Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very
rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will persist across the offshore waters of northern Central
America through Fri. Dangerous surf is also anticipated along the
coastal areas of this region until Fri evening. Farther south,
moderate to rough seas in moderate to large southerly swell will
continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador into
the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region.

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from north of Hawaii
to west of the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated gradient is
supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
from 08N to 24N west of 130W, and north of 24N between 120W and
140W. For remaining waters north of 10N, and waters near the
ITCZ, light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. Near the
monsoon trough east of 110W, moderate to fresh with locally
strong SW to W winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are evident. Near the
monsoon trough between 110W and 136W, gentle to moderate SSW to W
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas exist. South of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough, gentle to moderate southerly winds along with 5 to 8 ft
seas in moderate to large S swell prevail.

For the forecast, little overall changes are expected through
the end of the week. SW to W winds and very rough seas south of
the monsoon trough are expected to decrease toward this weekend.

$$

Chan