368
AXPZ20 KNHC 290941
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jun 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall for Central America and eastern Mexico: A broad
area of low pressure (AL94) over the NW Caribbean Sea near the
eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce
widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development of this low is not anticipated before it moves inland
over the Yucatan Peninsula later today. The system is then
forecast to move west-northwestward, emerging over the Bay of
Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear
generally conducive for further development. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is expected to continue to impact
Nicaragua, Guatemala, El Salvador and southern and eastern Mexico
through Tue. Currently, numerous moderate to strong convection
is over the Chiapas offshore waters along with thunderstorms
likely supporting gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility.
Scattered tstms and moderate convection is over the offshore
waters from Costa Rica through Guatemala. Please refer to local
weather advisories for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mexico near 15N93W
to a 1011 mb low near 11N105W to 07N119W. The ITCZ extends from
07N119W to 10N134W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection
associated with AL94, widely scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 13N between 97W and 111W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
heavy rainfall potential this weekend and early next week over
southern Mexico.

Low pressure is along Mexico as well as along the Baja
California Peninsula and adjacent waters. Except for the
Chiapas and Tehuantepec regions, a weak pressure gradient in the
region is supporting light to gentle NW winds over most of the
Mexico offshore waters as indicated by recent scatterometer pass.
Seas across the Baja Peninsula offshores are 4 to 6 ft in NW
swell while seas across the SW Mexican offshore zones are 4 to 5
ft in SW swell. Locally moderate NW winds are N of Punta Eugenia,
and off Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to moderate southerly winds
continue in the northern Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure (AL94) over the
NW Caribbean Sea is forecast to move NW into southern Mexico this
weekend, enhancing heavy showers and thunderstorms offshore the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the
area will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate
combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through Mon. By
Mon night through Tue, moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough
seas are forecast to affect the Baja California offshore waters.
A surface trough along the Baja Peninsula and a tighter pressure
gradient will lead to moderate to fresh SE winds along the Gulf
of California Tue afternoon through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
heavy rainfall potential this weekend and early next week over
northern Central America.

Recent scatterometer data show moderate to locally strong
southerly winds across the Costa Rica, Nicaragua and El Salvador
offshore waters. These winds south of the monsoon trough are
being enhanced by heavy showers and tstms occurring over the
these offshore waters. Seas of 5-7 ft are occurring in these
regions likely peaking at 8 ft in the areas of strong
convection. Gentle to moderate S to SW are across the remainder
offshore waters S of 07N with 4-6 ft seas in S swell.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure (AL94) over the
NW Caribbean Sea is forecast to move NW into southern Mexico this
weekend, and is expected to support moderate to fresh SW winds
across the offshore waters of Costa Rica into Guatemala through
today. This system will also bring showers and thunderstorms
across these areas through Sun. Afterward, gentle to moderate S
to SW winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast across all
of the offshore waters through Wed night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends SE from a 1024 mb high pressure center
near 36N136W. The ridge covers the subtropical waters W of 122W.
North of the ITCZ to 31N and W of 120W, winds are mostly gentle
to moderate from the northeast. Locally fresh winds are noted N
of the ITCZ to 15N between 131W and 140W where seas are 5 to 7
ft. East of 110W, a 1011 mb low pressure is noted near 11N105W.
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are occurring SE of the low and S
of the monsoon trough where earlier altimeter data showed rough
seas to 8 ft. Otherwise, gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of the
monsoon and ITCZ with seas to 5 ft. South of the ITCZ, gentle to
moderate E to SE winds prevail with 4 to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and 5-8 ft seas
E of 110W south of the monsoon trough through the weekend, little
change is expected elsewhere through the middle of next week.

$$
Ramos