454
AXPZ20 KNHC 290406
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jun 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall for Central America and eastern Mexico: Broad
circulation across Central America will deliver heavy rainfall
across Mexico southward to Costa Rica and Panama through the
weekend. Currently, scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms
are occurring from Costa Rica to the Yucatan Peninsula and
adjacent waters. For the forecast, heavy rainfall is expected to
continue to impact Nicaragua, Guatemala, El Salvador and southern
Mexico through Mon. Please refer to local weather advisories for
more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mexico near 15N93W
to a 1011 mb low near 11N106W to 07N119W. The ITCZ extends from
07N119W to 10N133W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 154 between 83W
and 106W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N
to 13N between 88W and 110W, and from 06N to 12N between 132W and
138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
heavy rainfall potential this weekend over southern Mexico.

Low pressure is along Mexico as well as the Baja California
Peninsula and adjacent waters. A weak pressure gradient in the
region is supporting light to gentle NW winds over most of the
Mexico offshore waters along with 3-5 ft seas. Locally moderate
NW winds are N of Punta Eugenia where seas are 5-7 ft in NW
swell, and off Cabo San Lucas where seas are 6 ft. Moderate
southerly winds continue in the northern Gulf of California with
seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, broad low pressure over northern Central
America is forecast to move NW into southern Mexico this
weekend, enhancing heavy showers and thunderstorms offshore the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the
area will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate
combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through Mon. By
Mon night through Tue, moderate to fresh winds and rough seas
could filter into the Baja California Norte waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
heavy rainfall potential this weekend over northern Central
America.

Recent scatterometer data show moderate to strong southerly
winds across the Costa Rica and Nicaragua offshore waters. These
winds south of the monsoon trough are being enhanced by heavy
showers and tstms occurring over the Nicaragua and northern Costa
Rica offshore waters. Seas of 5-7 ft are occurring in these
regions likely reaching 8 ft in the areas of strong convection.
Gentle to moderate S to SW are across the remainder offshore
waters S of 07N with 4-6 ft seas in S swell.

For the forecast, broad low pressure over northern Central
America will support moderate to fresh SW winds across the
offshore waters of Costa Rica into Guatemala through Sat. This
system will also bring showers and thunderstorms across these
areas through the weekend. Afterward, gentle to moderate S to SW
winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast across all of the
offshore waters Sun through Tue.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends SE from a 1023 mb high pressure center
near 36N139W. The ridge covers the subtropical waters W of 123W.
North of the ITCZ to 31N and W of 120W, winds are mostly gentle
to moderate from the northeast. Locally fresh winds are noted N
of the ITCZ to 15N and W of 135W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in this
area. E of 120W, a 1011 mb low pressure is noted near 16N119W.
Moderate winds are occurring around the low. Otherwise, gentle
winds prevail with seas to 5 ft. South of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough, moderate to fresh winds prevail with seas 4 to 7 ft. Seas
are to 8 ft with some of the fresh winds near 06N94W.

For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and 5 to 8 ft
seas E of 110W south of the monsoon trough through the weekend.
Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Ramos