320
AXPZ20 KNHC 280935
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jun 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall for Central America and eastern Mexico: Moderate
to fresh SW flow is delivering increased moisture into the
mountainous areas along the Pacific coast from Costa Rica to
Guatemala. Two tropical waves, one moving across Honduras,
Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, and a second wave moving across
Guatemala, El Salvador and Chiapas, Mexico are modulating the
scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms over these regions.
Numerous moderate to strong covection is affecting southern
Honduras and Guatemala, and its offshore waters where recent
scatterometer data show near gale force winds. Rough seas are
likely over these offshore regions along with low visibilities.
As broad low pressure moves NW toward southern Mexico, the heavy
rainfall will spread into this region over the weekend and into
Mon. Please refer to local weather advisories for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 16N with axis near 95W,
moving west around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is from 11N to 15N between 87W and 94W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N to 09N between 88W and 95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 11N90W to 11N100W to
a 1011 mb low near 11N108W to 09N125W. The ITCZ extends from
09N125W to 10N134W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical wave mentioned above, scattered moderate convection is
over the Costa Rica offshore waters from 07N to 11N between 82W
and 87W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
heavy rainfall potential this weekend over southern Mexico.

Recent scatterometer data show the continuation of gentle to
moderate NW winds along the Baja California offshore waters,
except N of Punta Eugenia where a tighter pressure gradient
supports moderate to fresh winds and 5-6 ft seas. Light to gentle
winds are across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters along with
3-4 ft seas. In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to
locally moderate from the south and seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, broad low pressure over northern Central
America is forecast to move NW into southern Mexico this
weekend, enhancing heavy showers and thunderstorms offshore the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the
area will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate
combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through Tue
night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

See tropical waves and monsoon trough sections above for
information on convection offshore Central America. Scatterometer
data showed fresh to near gale force SW winds N of 10N and in the
region of heavy showers and tstms off Guatemala and El Salvador.
Seas in that region are 6 to 8 ft. South of the monsoon trough or
S of 10N, between 81W and 92W, winds are moderate to fresh from
the SW and seas are 5-7 ft. Across the offshore zones between
Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate
from the south and seas are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, broad low pressure over northern Central
America will support moderate to fresh SW winds across the
offshore waters of Costa Rica and Nicaragua through tonight.
Afterward, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are forecast through
Tue night along with moderate seas. Scatttered heavy showers and
tstms are forecast to continue across the Central America
offshore waters through Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends SE from a 1026 mb high pressure center
near 37N139W. The ridge covers the subtropical waters W of 123W
where seas are in the 4-5 ft range. South of the ridge, a
surface trough breaks the ITCZ, extending from 13N135W to
08N138W. Recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NE
winds in the vicinity of the trough between 129W and 140W. Seas
are 5-7 ft in this area of enhanced winds due to a tighter
pressure gradient. N of 25N between 120W and 130W, a tighter
pressure gradient between lower pressure over Baja California and
the ridge supports moderate to fresh N to NW winds and 5-7 ft
seas in NW swell. East of 110W, moderate to fresh SW winds and
seas to 7 ft prevail S of the monsoon trough, in response to
lower pressure over Central America and a pair of tropical waves
moving through the region.

For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas E of 110W south of the monsoon trough through the weekend.
Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Ramos