493
AXPZ20 KNHC 082035
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jul 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 92.5W north of 06N to across
Chiapas, Mexico just west of Guatemala continuing into the Bay of
Campeche N of the area, moving westward at around 20 kt. Nearby
convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.
This wave is gradually catching up with another wave farther
W, and they might merge later on.

The axis of that tropical wave is near 98.5W north of 05N to near
the boundary of Oaxaca and Guerrero, Mexico, moving slowly westward
at 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 119W from 06N to 21N, moving
westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia near 09.5N76W to 09N90W to 12N113W to 08N120W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 77W and 82W,
and from 03.5N to 05.5N between 82W and 88W, from 09N to 16.5N
between 94W and 110W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07.5N to 15N between 110W and 112W, and
from 05N to 08N between 113W and 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh winds are noted offshore of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, with locally stronger winds south-southwestward near
an area of deep convection described above as sampled by a recent
ASCAT scatterometer pass. Light to gentle winds prevail from
offshore Guerrero north-northwestward to offshore Baja California
Sur and the southern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds
are across the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas
are 4-5 ft, dominated by S to SW swell, except locally higher in
the area of convection. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of
California, except around 4 ft near the entrance.

For the forecast, N winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Wed morning, with moderate
to fresh winds there otherwise through Thu. Winds may strengthen
in the northern Gulf of California Thu through Fri night.
Moderate to fresh winds will be offshore Baja California Norte
through Thu night, locally strong Wed night just S of Punta
Baja. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere
outside of any deep convection. Moderate seas will prevail
across the open waters over the next several days. An area of
low pressure could form several hundred nautical miles offshore
of southwestern Mexico late this week. However, environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further
development, and tropical cyclone development is no longer
expected.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong winds are over and downstream of the
Gulf of Papagayo per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6
ft range, except to 7 ft downstream of the Papagayo region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Papagayo through Wed morning, pulsing to moderate to fresh
thereafter. A surge of increasing winds may accompany the next
tropical wave, currently over the central Caribbean Sea, as it
moves through the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala
this weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.
Moderate seas in S to SW swell will prevail over the regional
waters during the period, building near rough S of the Galapagos
Islands by the end of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak high pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N. A weak
1012 mb low is analyzed near 20N118W with shower activity in the
vicinity. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the open
waters, except locally fresh in the W-central waters. Seas are
mainly 4-6 ft across the open waters, except to 7 ft S of 17N
and W of 130W, as well as elsewhere S of 02N and W of 105W.

For the forecast, cross equatorial, rough southerly swell will
move into and cover the waters S of 06N and W of 100W Wed through
the end of the week, with a reinforcing set this weekend. Seas
may build to near 8 ft in fresh N swell along 30N between 120W
and 130W at the end of the week into the weekend. Winds will
freshen S of the ITCZ tonight, persisting into the weekend. Winds
will pulse to moderate to fresh in the W-central and NW waters
through the period, with gentle to moderate winds over the
remainder of the open waters.

$$
Lewitsky