555
FXUS64 KEPZ 061148
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
548 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 159 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Hot temperatures are expected for the rest of the workweek with
afternoon highs above 100 degrees in the lowlands. Moisture
increases into the weekend, bringing the chance of showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the mountains. Strong downdraft winds
are the main threat with this activity. Temperatures cool to near
normal by Monday before heating up for the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

For today, the upper-level high settles overhead from the west,
resulting in the hottest day of this stretch. Temps have been
consistent over the past few days, right around 106-107 for KELP.
No changes to the Heat Advisories in this forecast package after
they were extended earlier through Friday. Temps cool just a
degree or two for Friday as the upper high sits nearby. All of
the lowlands are forecast to approach or exceed 100 with 90s in
places like Silver City.

In terms of storm potential, this afternoon doesn`t look
widespread or anything underneath high pressure, but there may be
just enough surface moisture (Td in the 30s-low 40s) to trigger a
few virga showers/dry t-storms over the mountains as we hit
convective temps. With dew point depressions near 60 degrees, any
storm that develops has the potential to produce strong
downdraft/dry microburst winds Thursday afternoon. Dry lightning
is another threat as the dry lower levels evaporate most if not
all rainfall that is produced. Instability and shear will be
meager at best, so garden-variety pop-up storms are expected until
diurnal heating ceases this evening.

This trend will continue through the weekend as enough moisture
remains and the upper high drifts to the east, creating a quasi-
monsoonal setup. PWs stay slightly above normal (~0.75") with the
higher terrain most likely to see daily afternoon storms. Better
storm coverage is forecast for Friday and Saturday as we get an
improved moisture fetch from the southeast. Gusty outflows will
slosh about in the lowlands into the evening each day, possibly
triggering new activity. DCAPE values approach 2000 J/kg, so
strong downdrafts remain a threat through the weekend. Precip
totals are expected to be light due to the deep dry layer the rain
has to overcome to reach the surface.

Heading into Sunday night, models are uncertain about a backdoor
front possibly bringing in low-level moisture from the Plains.
Best chance for rainfall associated with this disturbance will be
over north and eastern areas. The moisture battles against
developing westerly winds ahead of an opening cut-off low. Another
shortwave passes to the north around an amplifying ridge early
next week which may give northern areas another chance of showers
and storms. By midweek, the ridge takes over the region as most if
not all lingering moisture is flushed out. Isolated storms remain
possible in the mountains just due to orographic lift and residual
surface moisture. Temperatures cool to near or below normal early
next week as the ridge weakens and shifts eastward. Rebounding
temps are expected by the middle of next week underneath the
amplified ridge. Other than gusty outflows/downdrafts, winds
remain light to modestly breezy through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds remain
light AOB 8kts generally from the south. Isolated gusts are
possible this afternoon. FEW-SCT250 will continue to pass
overhead. Some CU around 13kft should develop this afternoon with
a few virga showers forming over the mountains. This activity
dissipates around sunset as we lose diurnal heating.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Low to moderate fire danger is expected through the period. Hot
temperatures are forecast through at least Friday as moisture
levels increase slightly into the weekend. For this afternoon, a
few virga showers develop in the mountains with a stray dry
lightning strike possible. Gusty and erratic downdraft winds are
possible. Better shower and storm chances are expected for Friday
and Saturday, especially over the mountains with potential for
stronger gusts. Dry lightning remains a threat into the weekend
with potential for new fire starts in the mountains. Precip
chances diminish early next week as dry westerly winds develop and
flush out most of the surface moisture. Temperatures will cool to
near normal early in the week as the upper high shifts well to
the east. Mainly dry and hotter conditions are expected for the
middle of next week.

Min RHs will range from 5-15% today, then 8-20% with higher values
in FWZ 113 this weekend. Vent rates will be good to very good
today, then very good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 107  80 106  79 /   0  10  20  50
Sierra Blanca            98  70  97  69 /  10  10  20  50
Las Cruces              106  72 105  71 /   0  10  20  40
Alamogordo              103  72 102  65 /  10  10  20  30
Cloudcroft               80  57  77  54 /  10  10  40  30
Truth or Consequences   102  72 100  70 /   0  10  20  30
Silver City              96  67  94  64 /  10  10  30  30
Deming                  104  68 103  68 /  10  10  20  40
Lordsburg               102  69 102  68 /  10  10  20  30
West El Paso Metro      104  77 103  76 /   0  10  20  50
Dell City               103  70 102  68 /  10  10  20  30
Fort Hancock            106  72 105  69 /  10  10  20  50
Loma Linda               98  72  97  70 /  10  10  20  50
Fabens                  106  75 105  72 /  10  10  20  50
Santa Teresa            103  72 102  71 /   0  10  20  50
White Sands HQ          103  77 102  76 /   0  10  20  40
Jornada Range           103  67 102  66 /   0  10  20  40
Hatch                   105  67 104  67 /   0  10  20  40
Columbus                103  73 104  75 /   0  10  30  50
Orogrande               102  72 101  69 /  10  10  20  30
Mayhill                  91  61  89  58 /  20  10  40  30
Mescalero                91  59  89  56 /  10  10  30  30
Timberon                 89  57  87  55 /  10  10  30  30
Winston                  94  62  92  60 /  10  10  40  30
Hillsboro               100  70  98  67 /  10  10  30  30
Spaceport               102  65 101  63 /   0  10  20  30
Lake Roberts             96  63  95  60 /  10  10  30  30
Hurley                   99  65  97  63 /  10  10  20  30
Cliff                   104  65 102  63 /  10  10  30  20
Mule Creek               98  68  97  66 /  10  10  20  10
Faywood                  98  69  97  65 /  10  10  20  30
Animas                  101  69 101  70 /  10  20  30  30
Hachita                 102  70 102  70 /  10  20  30  40
Antelope Wells          101  69 100  70 /  20  20  40  40
Cloverdale               96  70  95  69 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for NMZ411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson