Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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543 FXUS64 KEPZ 042047 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 247 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The heat is on for much of the lowlands the latter half of the week and into the early half of the weekend. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area each afternoon and evening beginning on Wednesday. The best chance to areawide precipitation will be on Friday afternoon. The mountains will have the best chance for thunderstorms through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Currently, the skies are mostly cloudy, the winds are light to breezy, and the temperatures are on the very warm side. For tonight, a shortwave will continue to move across the area producing partly to mostly cloudy skies. The winds will be generally light to low end breezy. With some clouds hovering over the area and the flow at the surface mainly from the west, the low temperatures on Wednesday morning will be above the normal for this time of the year. For Wednesday, much of the CWA will be mainly quiet except for the Sacramento Mountains and areas along the eastern border may see a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for thunderstorms will be in the mountains due to orographic lift. These storms will be ordinary in nature with instability around 300 J/kg and the lifted index around -3.0C. High pressure will amplify across the Southwest, which will allow for the high temperatures in the afternoon several degrees above the normal. The high temperatures for El Paso and parts of the Dona Ana County will be in the 103 to 104 range. For Thursday, the amplified ridge will linger across the Southwest while shifting slightly to the east. The center of this ridge will be across New Mexico, which will cause the temperatures to increase a few degrees from what they will be on Wednesday. Additionally, with day time heating and a southerly flow, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area. Much of the storms will be in the mountains. These storms will diminish after the sun sets. For the rest of the period, unsettled weather will continue all the way into early next week. The upper level ridge will continue to propagate eastward on Friday while bringing triple digit heat the the lowlands. As the center of this ridge shift across central Texas, there will be a better chance for showers and thunderstorms area wide especially in the afternoon and evening on Friday. Do not expect wide spread flooding; however, one or two strong storms could produce a few heavy downpours. Also, with these storms, strong winds with some areas of blowing dust could be possible. Showers and thunderstorms will continue each afternoon and evening especially in the mountains with the probabilistic chances varying from day to day. There are some uncertainty early next week as to where the trough/low and a ridge will be located. This will impact out temperatures for early next week. With cool air from the showers and cloud cover this weekend and earl next week, the high temperatures will be not as hot as they will be latter half of this week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW-BKN250. The winds will be generally light to breezy (8 to 14 kts) with occasional gusts of up to 24 kts and out from the between the west and west southwest through 02Z Wednesday at most of the sites except at KELP. Gusty winds at KELP will continue at least until 07Z Wednesday. The winds would become less gusty thereafter. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Tonight recovery will be fair to good. For Wednesday, conditions will be mostly quiet except for in the Sacramento Mountains. There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon across the Sacramento Mountains. The winds will be generally light and temperatures above the normal. Wednesday overnight recovery will be fair to good. For Thursday, there will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the lowlands with a better chance in the mountains. The winds will be light to breezy and temperatures continuing to be above the normal. For the rest of the period, there will be continued chances for showers and thunderstorms especially in the mountains each afternoon and evening. The winds will be light to breezy while the temperatures gradually cool to near the normal on Sunday. With that said, fire weather conditions will be elevated to near critical through Sunday. The min RHs on both Wednesday and Thursday will be below 15% across most of the area except for in the Sacramento Mountains where they will be between 16 and 26%. The ventilation rates will be good to very good for the same period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 104 77 106 / 0 0 10 20 Sierra Blanca 67 96 69 98 / 0 10 10 30 Las Cruces 68 102 70 105 / 0 0 10 10 Alamogordo 64 99 67 102 / 0 10 10 20 Cloudcroft 52 76 54 78 / 0 30 10 40 Truth or Consequences 69 99 71 102 / 0 10 10 20 Silver City 61 94 65 95 / 0 10 10 30 Deming 63 101 66 104 / 0 10 10 20 Lordsburg 62 99 66 102 / 0 10 10 20 West El Paso Metro 71 101 75 103 / 0 0 10 20 Dell City 64 100 67 102 / 0 20 10 20 Fort Hancock 65 103 68 105 / 0 10 10 30 Loma Linda 66 94 70 97 / 0 10 10 20 Fabens 68 103 71 105 / 0 0 10 20 Santa Teresa 65 99 69 102 / 0 0 10 20 White Sands HQ 73 100 75 103 / 0 10 10 20 Jornada Range 62 100 65 102 / 0 10 10 20 Hatch 63 102 65 105 / 0 10 10 20 Columbus 69 101 70 103 / 0 0 10 20 Orogrande 65 99 69 101 / 0 10 10 20 Mayhill 58 86 57 90 / 0 30 10 40 Mescalero 55 87 57 89 / 0 20 0 30 Timberon 55 85 56 88 / 0 20 10 30 Winston 59 92 60 93 / 0 10 10 30 Hillsboro 67 97 68 100 / 0 10 10 30 Spaceport 61 99 62 101 / 0 0 10 20 Lake Roberts 58 94 61 96 / 0 10 10 30 Hurley 60 96 62 98 / 0 10 10 20 Cliff 58 101 63 104 / 0 10 0 20 Mule Creek 62 96 65 98 / 0 10 0 20 Faywood 63 96 66 97 / 0 10 10 20 Animas 60 99 66 102 / 0 0 10 20 Hachita 63 99 67 102 / 0 0 10 20 Antelope Wells 61 98 66 100 / 0 0 10 30 Cloverdale 60 94 66 96 / 0 0 10 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424. NM...Heat Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ411. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira