267
FXUS64 KEPZ 031959
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
159 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Hot temperatures, mostly dry conditions, and light to breezy winds
will be the theme through the week. Very hot temperatures will
overspread the desert lowlands Wednesday through Friday, with the
hottest temperatures expected on Thursday. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday, with
temperatures staying around 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Quiet weather conditions and hot temperatures will be the theme
across the Borderland Region through the week. Weak flow aloft will
allow for light afternoon breezes and warming temperatures this
afternoon and Tuesday. High temperatures across the desert lowlands
will top out in the middle to upper 90s each afternoon. El Paso and
vicinity will flirt with 100 degrees on this afternoon and will
likely surpass 100 degrees on Tuesday

By Wednesday, strong high pressure aloft will move north out of
Mexico and will continue to build in across the Desert Southwest. In
response, temperatures will continue to increase during the
Wednesday through Friday timeframe. NBM probabilities continue to
paint 104-107 degrees temperatures across the El Paso metro during
that timeframe. A Heat Advisory will be in effect on Wednesday and
Thursday. Heat Risk values will range from Moderate to Major across
much of the area, with Major Heat Risk impacts for almost all of El
Paso County and surrounding desert lowlands on Thursday.

For Friday and Saturday, model and ensemble guidance continues to
differentiate from each other. The upper level ridge of high
pressure aforementioned above will generally stay in place across
the Intermountain West. This will ultimately weaken the dry
southwest flow we`ve be accustomed to in the low levels, allowing
east/southeasterly flow to increase. With east/southeasterly flow,
moisture will increase as well. This subtle but sufficient
moisture tap, in combination with an approaching upper level
system off the Baja Coast, will lead to increased shower and
thunderstorm chances. As of now, with confidence remaining low,
those rain chances are not too good, generally in the 10-40
percent range. But hey, at least it`s something. With the low
confidence in probability in shower/thunderstorm chances, comes a
larger range in high temperatures. On Friday, NBM 10th percentile
shows a high of 98 with the 90th percentile at 107, with Saturday
through early next week showing similar solutions. This just goes
to show the lower confidence in El Paso and surrounding desert
lowlands seeing any convection.

If thunderstorms develop across the lowlands towards the end of the
work week and into the weekend, the threat for strong outflow winds
and blowing dust will exist.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC to
FEW250. Winds will be breezy out of the SW through the afternoon
and evening hours at 13-18 knots with gusts to 23-28 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

ELEVATED fire weather conditions will remain across most of the
forecast area through Thursday. SW afternoon winds of 10-20 mph,
warming temperatures, and Min RH values in the single digits to low
teens can be expected. By the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, southern
NM and west TX will experience the hottest temperatures so far this
year. As of now, no Fire Weather products will likely be needed in
the coming days with conditions remaining ELEVATED. Sufficient
afternoon mixing will allow for Very Good to Excellent smoke
ventilation rates.

By Friday and Saturday, an increase in moisture from the east
coupled with an approaching Baja California storm system, will
promote isolated lowland and isolated/scattered mountain showers and
thunderstorms. As of now, confidence remains low with regard to
that. Just something to keep an eye on as it could possibly pose the
threat of dry lightning and gusty outflow winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72 101  74 104 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            64  94  66  97 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               63  99  68 103 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               60  98  63 100 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               49  76  53  77 /   0   0   0  20
Truth or Consequences    65  97  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              58  89  61  93 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                   59  98  63 101 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                58  95  62  99 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       67  98  71 101 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                60 100  63 101 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             62 100  65 104 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               63  91  66  95 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                   66 100  68 103 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             63  96  65 100 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           71  98  73 101 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            59  97  63 101 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    60  99  63 102 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 65  97  68 101 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                61  96  65  99 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                  57  89  58  88 /   0   0   0  20
Mescalero                52  86  55  88 /   0   0   0  20
Timberon                 51  85  55  86 /   0   0   0  20
Winston                  57  90  59  92 /   0  10   0  10
Hillsboro                62  95  68  97 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport                57  96  61  99 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             54  91  57  94 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   55  92  60  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    56  97  59 101 /   0   0   0  10
Mule Creek               59  92  61  96 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                  59  92  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   58  94  60  99 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  59  95  63  99 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           59  93  61  99 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               57  88  61  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 PM MDT Thursday for
     TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 PM MDT Thursday for
     NMZ411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers