946
FXUS64 KEPZ 081743
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1143 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 335 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Modest low level moisture and southerly flow aloft will continue
to fuel isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and
again on Sunday afternoon and evening. Strong winds will continue
to be the biggest threat with these storms. Temperatures will
remain hot, though a few degrees lower Friday. After Sunday, high
pressure aloft begins building in over the Desert Southwest,
ending any showers and allowing temperatures to become dangerously
hot again by Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

WV imagery shows upper low continuing to spin over the central
Baja, creating southerly flow and some mid level moisture over the
CWA. At lower levels, moisture that seeped in Thursday and Friday
will persist over the area today and again Sunday, though drier
air will be working in from the west Sunday. Thus will continue
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening and isolated storms
Sunday afternoon/evening, mostly east of the Rio Grande Valley.
Storms west of the Rio Grande Valley today are looking at lower
dewpoints and dry lightning is possible there. With continued high
DCAPES and dewpoint depressions, strong winds and blowing dust
will be the main threats from these storms. Temperatures will
remain hot, though down some from Friday. Will keep Heat Advisory
going through tonight for El Paso and the lower valley.

Monday and beyond...sub-tropical high over Mexico will build
northward over the Desert Southwest, once again bringing
dangerously hot temperatures back to the CWA. GFS/ECMWF quite
similar with this feature and show 500mb heights as high as 597
dm. 850mb temps max out around 36C. Thus, by Wednesday and
Thursday we will likely see some of our hottest weather again.
Note on max temp grids. Continued with the NBM 75 percentile
numbers over the NBM deterministic MOS as this seems to be closer
to reality. This generally adds 1 to 2 degrees to the NBE
guidance.

Friday and Saturday...dry-line surges back into the area as aloft
a Pacific trough displaces the high pressure. This would suggest
just the slightest chances of thunderstorms and somewhat lower
temps, though the 850mb temps do not lower at all.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Generally VFR conditions this afternoon with less coverage of
thunderstorms compared to yesterday. Scattered storms expected
this afternoon in the Sacramento Mtns and parts of the Tularosa
Basin. Low confidence in storms reaching terminals today but KLRU
and KELP have the best chance to see a storm. Gusty and erratic
outflow winds possible again today with gusts possibly reaching
30-50 MPH near thunderstorms. Storm activity will wane after 00Z
with lingering showers possible that evening. Otherwise, expect
west winds this afternoon with speeds 10-15G20-25KT becoming
around 10KT after 03Z. Elevated wind speeds possible around 09Z
for KELP and KLRU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Fire conditions will remain elevated to near-critical through
Thursday, as hot temperatures and low humidity continue.
Additionally, today and Sunday, with some storms around, dry
lightning is possible, especially west of the Rio Grande Valley.
Also gusty storm outflow winds are possible with these storms,
making fire behavior unpredictable. Storm chances go away after
Sunday, but even hotter temperatures return. Not much of a fair
trade off as far as fire danger is concerned.

Min RHs: Lowlands 7-12% through Thursday. Mountains..Gila 10-15%
through Thursday, and the Sacramentos 15-25% through Thursday.
Vent rates very good-excellent through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 104  78 101  75 /  20  20  20  10
Sierra Blanca            96  71  95  67 /  30  30  20  10
Las Cruces              102  72  99  67 /  20  20  20  10
Alamogordo               99  66  97  64 /  20  20  20  20
Cloudcroft               79  52  76  50 /  30  20  40  30
Truth or Consequences    99  72  95  68 /  20  20  20  20
Silver City              90  64  88  60 /  20  20  30  10
Deming                   99  69  97  62 /  20  20  20  10
Lordsburg                96  66  95  63 /  10  10  20  10
West El Paso Metro       99  75  98  72 /  20  20  20  10
Dell City               100  68 100  65 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Hancock            101  70 101  67 /  20  20  20  10
Loma Linda               95  70  93  67 /  20  20  20  10
Fabens                  101  73 101  69 /  20  20  20  10
Santa Teresa            100  72  99  67 /  20  20  20  10
White Sands HQ           99  79  97  73 /  20  20  20  20
Jornada Range            99  66  97  62 /  20  20  20  20
Hatch                   100  66  98  62 /  20  20  20  20
Columbus                 98  74  98  69 /  20  20  20  10
Orogrande                99  69  96  67 /  20  20  20  20
Mayhill                  91  58  88  54 /  30  20  50  30
Mescalero                90  55  87  53 /  30  20  40  30
Timberon                 88  55  86  52 /  30  20  40  20
Winston                  90  62  88  57 /  20  20  40  20
Hillsboro                95  69  94  64 /  20  20  40  20
Spaceport                98  64  96  59 /  20  20  20  20
Lake Roberts             91  61  90  57 /  20  20  30  20
Hurley                   94  63  93  58 /  20  20  20  10
Cliff                    97  59  97  57 /  10  10  20  10
Mule Creek               93  55  92  54 /  10  10  20  10
Faywood                  93  67  92  62 /  20  20  20  20
Animas                   95  64  95  63 /  20  10  20  10
Hachita                  95  67  95  64 /  20  20  20  10
Antelope Wells           94  66  94  63 /  20  20  20  10
Cloverdale               90  64  90  62 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ419-423-424.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher