Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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887 FXUS64 KEPZ 131734 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1134 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 239 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Strong high pressure, directly over the Borderland today, will make for the hottest day of the year. With locations across the lowlands seeing triple digits for most of the afternoon, the area is under a heat advisory, with El Paso and the Rio Grande valley in an excessive heat warning. Highs between 105 and 110 are expected across the lowlands, with highs averaging 10 degrees above normal. Hot conditions continue through the weekend, well into next week. A weak trough will pass Friday to kick up the winds a bit, and bring a bit of moisture. Our area mountains may see some showers or storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Today is expected to be our hottest day of the year, with a high pressure ridge directly overhead. This feature will build heat over the area, with our entire lowlands topping out this afternoon with temperatures ranging from 105 to 110. These temperatures support the continuation of Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings for today and tonight. Winds will be generally light. Friday, the upper low over the N Baja, will move across the Southwestern U.S. and pass over the Four Corners as a relatively minor upper trough. This feature largely passes to our north and will raise our winds, but not in a major way. Most of the forecast area will see nothing more than afternoon breezy conditions. However, we may see marginally windy conditions over the Gila region, which will be in the location of the tightest pressure gradients aloft and at the surface. The tough will introduce a bit of upper and mid level moisture with it. The low levels will remain mostly dry. With the added moisture we will see some increased clouds and our mountain zones (esp. the Gila region) may see some isolated showers/thunderstorms Friday afternoon. The breakdown of the upper high, along with the added moisture and clouds, will allow temperatures to back off a bit, but still remain above 100 for most of the area lowlands. After the trough exits into the Plains Saturday morning, ridging tries to return, but looks to stay well west, with a more zonal pattern back over the region. This will keep the region warm and dry, with lighter winds for the weekend. Next week we see a broad upper trough develop and linger over the Western U.S. This will keep us mostly dry, and warm, with somewhat breezy afternoon conditions. We may see some SE low level flow begin to move Gulf moisture back west and over our area. We will be looking at POP and storm chances for our area after mid week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 P6SM SKC-SCT150 through period. Winds will be variable under 10KTS to start the period and start to turn to the N to NW overnight west of the Rio Grande and S to SE east of the Rio Grande AOB 12KTS. An isolated -TSRA possible over the Sacs between 19Z-23Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 239 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Hot and dry, under high pressure today, but not with a lot of winds as high pressure aloft still controls our weather. Temperatures will top out 10+ degrees above normal. Minimum RH will drop well into the single-digits range. Not a lot of wind today. Tomorrow, Friday, we will have an upper trough lift across the Four Corners. This feature will cause some stronger winds across the area, but mostly over the Gila Region, across northern Grant, and Catron counties. With the continuation of warm and very dry conditions, coupled with the stronger winds, we will upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for zones 110, but let the watch drop over the Bootheel and lowlands of 110 due to the lesser winds expected there. However, the entire region will be very dry, and breezy, elevating conditions. Winds will back off Saturday, but we continue quite warm and very dry. High pressure will attempt to rebound, but a broad Western U.S. trough looks to build and linger to our west. This will try to draw in some moisture from the east, for mid week next week, over our eastern areas, but still too early to be confident in that. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 110 81 106 78 / 10 10 20 10 Sierra Blanca 102 71 99 70 / 10 10 20 20 Las Cruces 108 74 104 70 / 0 10 20 10 Alamogordo 106 74 101 68 / 0 10 30 20 Cloudcroft 82 58 78 52 / 10 10 50 30 Truth or Consequences 104 73 98 69 / 0 20 30 10 Silver City 99 68 94 62 / 10 20 20 0 Deming 107 69 104 65 / 0 10 20 10 Lordsburg 105 71 102 64 / 10 20 10 0 West El Paso Metro 107 78 104 75 / 10 10 20 10 Dell City 106 71 102 68 / 10 10 20 20 Fort Hancock 109 73 106 70 / 10 10 20 20 Loma Linda 101 73 98 70 / 10 10 20 20 Fabens 110 76 106 73 / 10 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 107 73 103 69 / 0 10 20 10 White Sands HQ 107 79 101 77 / 10 10 30 10 Jornada Range 107 71 102 66 / 0 10 30 10 Hatch 108 70 104 65 / 0 10 30 10 Columbus 107 75 104 70 / 0 10 10 10 Orogrande 105 74 101 70 / 10 10 30 20 Mayhill 94 61 88 55 / 10 10 50 30 Mescalero 94 60 88 55 / 10 10 50 30 Timberon 91 58 87 55 / 10 10 30 20 Winston 96 62 88 56 / 10 20 30 10 Hillsboro 102 71 96 66 / 10 20 20 10 Spaceport 105 68 99 62 / 0 10 30 10 Lake Roberts 98 63 93 58 / 10 20 20 0 Hurley 102 66 96 60 / 10 10 20 0 Cliff 107 66 102 58 / 10 10 20 0 Mule Creek 101 71 96 63 / 10 20 10 0 Faywood 101 69 96 64 / 10 10 20 10 Animas 105 71 102 63 / 10 10 10 0 Hachita 105 71 101 64 / 0 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 105 71 102 65 / 10 10 10 0 Cloverdale 100 71 96 64 / 10 10 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ420>422. Excessive Heat Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ418-419- 423-424. NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ401-403>411-414-416- 417-425-427>429. Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NMZ110. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz