Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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052 FXUS64 KEPZ 150940 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 340 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Sub-tropical moisture will persist over the area through Tuesday, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for rain will be north and west of Las Cruces today and again Monday, with the rain chances spreading east across the Rio Grande Valley Monday night. The moisture begins receding east on Tuesday, but a slight chance of thunderstorms will exist east of the Rio Grande Valley. The rest of the work week into the the weekend will remain dry but temperatures will drop to just above normal levels. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 WV imagery shows ex TS Ileana now dissipated over Mexican Chihuahuan Desert with her moisture mostly over southern and eastern Texas. A modest portion of moisture that was north of Ileana remains in place over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. This moisture will continue to fuel rain chances over the next 2-3 days. Meanwhile, strong Pacific upper low has moved over Vancouver Island and will continue to dig south and deepen slightly, being located over northern California tonight. For today and Monday...southwest flow ahead of the upper low will produce series of weak short waves that traverse across New Mexico and help to kick off showers/thunderstorms through tonight with remnant moisture. GFS/NAM12/ECMWF and several hi-res models all in good agreement keeping POPs mainly north and west of Las Cruces this afternoon and night where instability and best synoptic forcing are. Overnight showers may persist but mostly west of Deming. On Monday with the upper low moving over the Great Basin, moisture will begin to spread east. Showers/thunderstorms mainly west of the Rio Grande Valley in the morning/afternoon but by late afternoon or early evening the chances of rain should spread east over most of remainder of CWA. Slow warming at mid levels will not help lapse rates, but models still showing decent DCAPE values and dewpoint depressions today and Monday for some strong wind gust threat. PWs well above normal suggest some heavy rain/flood potential. Storm motion relatively slow today could aid in some flooding, with the Gila/Black Range the main worry. Storm motion increases Monday so flood threat less likely. Temperatures will remain well above normal. Tuesday...upper low over Great Basin begins lifting out over the northern Rockies with main trough rotating across New Mexico and forcing the remaining moisture east. Look for some morning showers still possible in the west, but then the chance of showers/thunderstorms will move to the Rio Grande Valley early afternoon and then the far eastern CWA by late afternoon. Wednesday and beyond...drier air moving in will reform dry-line just east of the CWA. Models show typical undulating dance of the dry-line just east of the CWA through Friday. Westward protrusions could aid in a few showers over the far eastern CWA, but left out any mention of this for now. Second upper low rapidly digs south down the west coast and to near the Four Corners Friday. This upper low and trough will bring drier air into CWA and kick the dry-line further east through Sunday. High temperatures will fall to near seasonable levels. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024 VFR conditions expected at TAF sites through the 18Z. Afterwards, Isolated TSRA may impact KTCS along with nearby mountains east and west. TSRA is less likely at KDMN, KLRU, KELP with VFR conditions expected to continue through the valid period. clouds mostly clear with lingering FEW150 til 18Z. After 18Z SCT080-100 BKN200. Winds will remain southerly from 6 to 10 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Some sub-tropical moisture persisting across the fire zones through Tuesday. Scattered showers/thunderstorms this afternoon/tonight mostly north and west of Las Cruces. More showers/thunderstorms Monday slowly spreading east across most of the zones. Strong and erratic winds possible near these storms. Temperatures remaining above normal. Drying out Wednesday into the weekend, with mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures. Breezy afternoons Thursday and Friday could lead to some elevated fire conditions, mainly lower elevations. Min RHs: Lowlands 20-30% through Tuesday dropping to 15-20% Wednesday through Friday. Mountains 30-45% through Tuesday dropping to 20-30% Wednesday through Friday. Vent rates good-very good today and Monday, then very good-excellent Tuesday through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 96 72 95 73 / 10 10 10 30 Sierra Blanca 89 65 90 65 / 0 10 0 20 Las Cruces 94 66 92 68 / 10 10 20 30 Alamogordo 93 66 92 66 / 20 20 20 30 Cloudcroft 72 46 71 47 / 20 30 30 30 Truth or Consequences 91 62 87 64 / 20 20 30 20 Silver City 87 57 83 57 / 40 30 50 30 Deming 94 63 89 65 / 20 20 30 30 Lordsburg 89 62 86 62 / 30 30 40 30 West El Paso Metro 94 72 93 72 / 10 10 10 30 Dell City 94 65 93 68 / 0 10 10 20 Fort Hancock 95 68 95 70 / 0 10 10 20 Loma Linda 89 64 87 65 / 10 10 10 20 Fabens 96 67 94 70 / 10 10 10 20 Santa Teresa 93 68 92 69 / 10 10 20 30 White Sands HQ 93 69 91 69 / 10 10 10 30 Jornada Range 93 65 91 66 / 20 20 20 30 Hatch 94 63 93 65 / 20 20 20 30 Columbus 93 67 89 68 / 20 20 30 30 Orogrande 92 66 90 66 / 10 10 10 30 Mayhill 85 50 83 53 / 20 20 30 20 Mescalero 84 52 84 52 / 20 20 30 30 Timberon 82 49 80 51 / 10 20 20 20 Winston 83 51 80 52 / 40 20 40 20 Hillsboro 90 59 85 59 / 20 20 40 30 Spaceport 92 61 88 62 / 20 20 20 30 Lake Roberts 84 50 81 52 / 50 30 60 30 Hurley 87 57 85 58 / 30 20 40 30 Cliff 88 50 83 48 / 40 30 50 30 Mule Creek 84 46 81 44 / 40 30 40 30 Faywood 88 59 85 60 / 20 20 40 30 Animas 90 64 86 62 / 30 30 40 20 Hachita 90 63 88 62 / 20 20 30 30 Antelope Wells 90 62 86 60 / 20 20 30 20 Cloverdale 86 59 81 58 / 30 20 30 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner