045
FXUS64 KEPZ 121935
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
135 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Our current heat wave looks to continue for the next several
days. Temperatures will reach their peak Thursday before dropping
back a few degrees heading into the weekend thanks to a weak
weather system moving through. Rainfall will be limited to only
the higher terrain with this system, leaving most of the area with
a continuation of dry conditions and dangerous heat levels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A strong subtropical ridge has become established over the region
and is expected to strengthen further through the day Thursday.
This will likely result in the hottest temperatures to date for
the Borderland with record setting temps possible for Thursday.
Meanwhile, an upper low that has been lingering west of the Baja
is progged to begin lifting northeastward Thursday through
Saturday. This feature should pass just north and west of our
region Friday into Saturday, which will serve to flatten our
ridge slightly. In turn we will see temperatures drop back a few
degrees for the weekend, but readings will still be several
degrees above seasonal norms as our current string of triple digit
days will certainly extend through the upcoming weekend and
beyond.

Meanwhile, as the upper trough tracks by, there will be some mid
and high level moisture drawn up over the region Friday. The NBM
has been persistent with introducing low POP`s for most areas
Friday, however we feel this is more of an artifact being
introduced by climatology as opposed to true forcing from the
trough. There will be a slight chance for some light precipitation
over the Gila as well as the ongoing threat for some isolated
thunderstorms over the Sacramento`s during the afternoon hours.
However the current forecast package keeps the majority of the
region high and dry right through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the period with SKC-FEW250.
Winds will remain light and variable, generally less than 10 knots
though a few gusts up to 20 knots will be possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

We will remain hot and dry, but enough moisture will remain over
the Sacramento Mountains to allow isolated thunderstorms with
gusty winds and dry lightning the main concern. Elsewhere, min RH
values will drop to 10 percent or less with very hot temperatures.
Winds will top out around 10 MPH through Thursday afternoon. On
Friday, a passing trough will increase winds ranging 15 to 20 MPH
for areas west of the Rio Grande and 10 to 15 MPH for areas east
of the Rio. Areas west of the Rio Grande (Zones 110 and 111) are
under a Fire Weather Watch as a result for critical fire
conditions.

Venting will range good to very good through Thursday, increasing
to excellent for Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  78 110  81 107 /   0   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            70 103  72  99 /  10  10  10  10
Las Cruces               72 108  75 104 /   0   0  10  10
Alamogordo               69 105  72 102 /  10  10  10  20
Cloudcroft               56  81  57  77 /  10  10  10  40
Truth or Consequences    71 104  73  99 /  10   0  20  20
Silver City              67  98  68  94 /   0   0  20  20
Deming                   68 107  70 104 /   0   0  10  10
Lordsburg                68 105  72 102 /   0   0  10   0
West El Paso Metro       76 107  79 104 /   0   0  10   0
Dell City                68 106  69 102 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Hancock             71 109  73 106 /  10  10  10  10
Loma Linda               71 100  73  97 /   0  10  10  10
Fabens                   73 109  76 106 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             71 107  74 103 /   0   0  10   0
White Sands HQ           77 105  80 102 /   0  10  10  10
Jornada Range            68 106  69 102 /  10   0  10  10
Hatch                    67 107  70 104 /  10   0  10  10
Columbus                 72 107  76 104 /   0   0  10  10
Orogrande                70 105  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
Mayhill                  60  95  60  88 /  10  20  10  50
Mescalero                59  92  59  87 /  10  10  10  40
Timberon                 57  89  58  87 /  10  10  10  40
Winston                  62  95  63  90 /  10  10  20  40
Hillsboro                70 101  70  97 /  10   0  20  20
Spaceport                64 103  67  99 /  10   0  10  20
Lake Roberts             62  97  63  93 /   0   0  20  20
Hurley                   65 101  65  97 /   0   0  20  10
Cliff                    62 108  65 102 /   0   0  20  10
Mule Creek               67 100  69  96 /   0   0  10  10
Faywood                  68 100  69  96 /   0   0  20  10
Animas                   68 105  71 102 /   0  10  10   0
Hachita                  68 105  72 102 /   0   0  10  10
Antelope Wells           69 104  70 101 /   0  10  10   0
Cloverdale               70 100  69  96 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ420>422.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Saturday
     for TXZ418-419-423-424.

     Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ401-403>411-414-416-
     417-425-427>429.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for NMZ110-111.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...27-Laney