513
FXUS64 KEPZ 090939
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
339 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Our stretch of hot weather will continue, although some clouds and
isolated thunderstorms today and Monday will keep temperatures
down a bit. By Tuesday and especially Wednesday and Thursday,
temperatures will climb back to near record levels as our sub-
tropical high builds over the area. The high recedes some by
Friday and Saturday, perhaps lowering temperatures a few degrees
and bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms back to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Baja low has moved up over southern Arizona this morning. The low
will drift up to northern Arizona tonight with associated trough
moving north across the CWA. This will give the area a chance of
some showers this morning and isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Next Pacific low moves to just west of the
Baja next several days and becomes cut off and nearly stationary
well into the new week. This allows Mexican sub-tropical high to
build in over the Desert Southwest and gradually return us to the
furnace.

In the meantime Monday will still see some residual moisture
around and perhaps a stray shower/thunderstorm, mainly over the
mountains. Temperatures Monday could remain below 100 for most
sites (that being the last time for quite awhile). By Tuesday the
upper high is well in place and 850mb temps begin to climb.
Tuesday high temps nearing advisory level again and the period
Wednesday through Friday will be near record level highs for many
places. Much of the lowlands will likely need more Heat Advisories
and El Paso and the lower valley may Excessive Hear Warnings,
especially Thursday. We will likely approach record heat Wednesday
into the weekend. There is still some doubt about the heat Friday
and Saturday as the upper high recedes southward as that Pacific
low cuts across the area. Best guess is some cooler air moves in
at mid/upper levels, but low level air (as indicated by 850mb
temps) remains largely unchanged. Airmass will be drier too, all
pointing to little relief from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF
sites with CIG FEW-BKN250.  The winds are generally light now, but
will become breezy 10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts while out
from the west after 08Z across most of the terminals except at KTCS.
The winds at KTCS should become breezy around 15 kts with gust up to
25 kts and out from between the southwest and northwest between 14
and 23Z. The winds will subside after 01Z Monday. There will be no
reduction in the VSBY across the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Elevated to near-critical conditions to continue through this
entire week as hot temperatures will persist. Slight chances of
showers/thunderstorms this afternoon and Monday afternoon, but
rainfall total potential on the skimpy side. Not much chance of
rain remainder of week and by Wednesday into the weekend we will
see near record high temperatures. At this time Friday looks to
have the highest afternoon winds and thus a risk for RFW
conditions.

Min RHs: Lowlands 8-13% through Friday. Mountains 10-15% Gila
through Friday and 15-25% Sacramentos through Friday. Vent rates
very good to excellent through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 101  74 100  74 /  20  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca            95  68  92  67 /  10  10  10  10
Las Cruces               99  70  97  68 /  20  10  10  10
Alamogordo               97  66  94  65 /  20  20  20  10
Cloudcroft               76  50  74  49 /  30  30  40  10
Truth or Consequences    95  71  93  68 /  20  20  20  10
Silver City              87  62  87  61 /  20  10  10  10
Deming                   97  66  97  63 /  20  10  10   0
Lordsburg                94  66  95  63 /  10  10  10   0
West El Paso Metro       98  73  97  71 /  20  10  10   0
Dell City                99  66  95  63 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Hancock            101  66 100  65 /  10  10  10  10
Loma Linda               92  65  90  65 /  10  10  10  10
Fabens                  100  69  99  67 /  20  10  10  10
Santa Teresa             98  69  98  67 /  20  10  10   0
White Sands HQ           97  75  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
Jornada Range            97  65  95  62 /  20  10  10  10
Hatch                    98  65  97  63 /  20  10  10  10
Columbus                 97  71  97  68 /  20  10   0   0
Orogrande                97  69  94  66 /  20  20  20  10
Mayhill                  88  53  82  53 /  30  30  40  10
Mescalero                87  53  84  52 /  30  30  40  10
Timberon                 85  51  81  51 /  20  20  30  10
Winston                  86  56  86  55 /  30  20  30  10
Hillsboro                91  65  92  64 /  30  20  20  10
Spaceport                94  63  93  60 /  20  20  20  10
Lake Roberts             87  57  90  56 /  30  10  10  10
Hurley                   90  59  92  59 /  20  10  10   0
Cliff                    95  57  96  55 /  10  10  10   0
Mule Creek               89  52  90  51 /  10  10  10   0
Faywood                  90  62  91  62 /  20  10  10  10
Animas                   94  65  95  63 /  10  10   0   0
Hachita                  94  67  95  63 /  20  10   0   0
Antelope Wells           94  66  95  64 /  20  10   0  10
Cloverdale               89  64  89  63 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner