Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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166 FXUS64 KEPZ 090521 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1121 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 122 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Thunderstorms possible again the next couple days but will remain limited to east of the Rio Grande, but more specifically the Sacramento Mtns. Gusty outflow winds will be the primary hazard with thunderstorms the next couple days. High pressure starts to build in over the area Tuesday through Friday bringing bleak chances for storms but also very hot temperatures for multiple days. Thursday will be the hottest day of the forecast period but starting Tuesday and lasting into the weekend will be very hot each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 UL high pressure continues to shift eastward over the Gulf of Mexico, leaving the Borderland sandwiched in between the high and a low over Baja California/NW Mexico. A bit drier conditions expected tomorrow afternoon but thunderstorms are still possible again for the Sacramento Mtns. Inverted V soundings tomorrow will continue the threat for gusty and erratic wind gusts from outflows where gusts could be around 30-40MPH. A backdoor front will slide south and down the Rockies where it will make an attempt to enter the area Monday morning. Unfortunately, this won`t bring cooler temperatures to the area but it will bring in better moisture to the area and will generally spread as far west as the Rio Grande Valley. Far eastern areas of the CWA may have a chance to see thunderstorms if moisture can stay in the area long enough that afternoon. Storms might be a bit stronger than what we`ll see today and tomorrow but this will add to the downburst threat again that afternoon as DCAPEs continue to stay quite elevated (around 1300-1500J/kg). Gusts have the potential to be a somewhat stronger than Sundays potential. By Tuesday, the Borderland starts to dry out leaving storm chances fairly bleak, but the mountains could see a storm or two that afternoon and through the end of the work week. However, upper- level high pressure will build over the area throughout this time. This will suppress storms and allow for very hot temperatures during this time frame, especially Thursday. El Paso will be approaching heat advisory criteria again Tuesday afternoon with Wednesday through Friday more of a slam dunk scenario for heat advisories. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW-BKN250. The winds are generally light now, but will become breezy 10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts while out from the west after 08Z across most of the terminals except at KTCS. The winds at KTCS should become breezy around 15 kts with gust up to 25 kts and out from between the southwest and northwest between 14 and 23Z. The winds will subside after 01Z Monday. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 122 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Elevated fire conditions continue each day as min RHs stay within critical thresholds everywhere except the Sacramento Mtns. Continued light breezes can be expected each afternoon but will not get close to critical thresholds keeping conditions elevated. Storm chances exist again tomorrow and Monday afternoons where the main threat will be dry lightning and very gusty/erratic outflow winds near thunderstorms. A cool front will bring in better moisture to the Rio Grande Valley and eastward Monday morning, but unfortunately won`t make a dent in these hot temperatures we`re experiencing. Storm chances appear limited to the Sacramento Mtns with chances in the eastern parts of Hudspeth and Otero counties. The Gila could see a few storms the next couple days but better chances exist out east. The same hazards of dry lightning and very gusty outflow winds will still be possible for this area tomorrow and Monday. Hot temperatures are on the way starting Tuesday and lasting through at least the work week as high pressure builds over the Borderland. Storm chances look bleak as high pressure works against storm formation leaving much of the area dry. A storm or two is possible these days but won`t amount to much rainfall. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 78 100 72 100 / 10 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 70 93 63 92 / 20 10 10 10 Las Cruces 70 97 65 97 / 10 20 10 10 Alamogordo 66 95 61 94 / 20 20 20 20 Cloudcroft 53 72 48 71 / 20 30 30 40 Truth or Consequences 71 93 66 93 / 10 20 20 20 Silver City 63 85 59 88 / 20 30 10 10 Deming 68 95 61 97 / 20 20 10 10 Lordsburg 66 92 61 95 / 10 30 10 10 West El Paso Metro 73 96 69 97 / 10 20 10 10 Dell City 66 98 63 95 / 30 20 20 20 Fort Hancock 68 100 63 100 / 20 10 10 10 Loma Linda 68 90 62 90 / 20 20 10 10 Fabens 73 99 66 99 / 10 20 10 10 Santa Teresa 71 95 64 95 / 10 20 10 10 White Sands HQ 77 95 70 95 / 20 20 10 10 Jornada Range 65 95 60 95 / 10 20 10 10 Hatch 66 96 60 97 / 10 20 10 10 Columbus 74 95 66 97 / 20 20 10 0 Orogrande 68 95 64 94 / 20 20 20 20 Mayhill 59 84 51 80 / 20 30 30 40 Mescalero 56 83 51 82 / 20 30 30 40 Timberon 55 81 49 79 / 20 30 20 30 Winston 60 83 54 85 / 10 30 20 30 Hillsboro 68 89 62 92 / 10 30 20 20 Spaceport 63 92 58 93 / 10 20 20 20 Lake Roberts 59 84 55 89 / 20 30 10 10 Hurley 63 88 56 92 / 20 30 10 10 Cliff 61 93 56 96 / 10 30 10 10 Mule Creek 64 87 60 90 / 10 20 0 10 Faywood 65 88 59 91 / 20 20 10 10 Animas 66 92 60 95 / 20 20 0 0 Hachita 68 92 62 95 / 20 20 10 0 Antelope Wells 67 92 61 95 / 20 30 10 0 Cloverdale 65 87 61 89 / 20 10 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ419-423-424. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner