386
FXUS64 KEPZ 121138
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
538 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Very hot conditions will continue through much of the period with
the hottest temperatures expected for Thursday. The forecast
remains dry for much of the area. The exception will be each
afternoon through Friday for the Sacramento Mountains with some
storms also possible in the Gila on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

UL ridge is building across the Desert Southwest. That means
temperatures will climb, peaking tomorrow as the 597 dm H500 high
centers over us. Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings are
in effect through Friday and will likely need to be extended
beyond that. The ridge will be pushed east by the ejection of the
low off the Baja Coast on Friday. Winds will be breezy as a result,
especially west of the Continental Divide where fire danger will
be a concern. NBM continues to keep enough moisture for storms in
the Sacs this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. On Friday, NBM
spreads POPs nearly area wide, but no deterministic member nor
the GEFS support this solution. POPs were scaled back accordingly
except for in the mountains.

A flat pattern is expected for Saturday before a ridge begins to
build to our east and a trough deepens to our west. Hot SW flow
will set-up for our CWA, keeping us dry while temperatures climb
again, peaking on Sunday. Loss of UL heights by Monday will cause
temperatures to start a "cooling" trend, sending highs closer to
normal by mid-week but still plenty hot.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with SKC-FEW250. Winds
will remain light and variable, generally less than 10 knots
though a few gusts up to 20 knots will be possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

We will remain hot and dry, but enough moisture will remain over
the Sacramento Mountains to allow isolated thunderstorms with
gusty winds and dry lightning the main concern. Elsewhere, min RH
values will drop to 10 percent or less with very hot temperatures.
Winds will stop out around 10 MPH the next couple of afternoons.
On Friday, a passing trough will increase winds ranging 15 to 20
MPH for areas west of the Rio Grande and 10 to 15 MPH for areas
east of the Rio. Areas west of the Rio Grande (Zones 110 and 111)
are under a Fire Weather Watch as a result for critical fire
conditions.

Venting will range good to very good through Thursday, increasing
to excellent for Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 106  78 110  81 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            97  70 103  72 /  10  10  10  10
Las Cruces              105  72 108  75 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo              101  69 105  72 /  10  10  10  10
Cloudcroft               78  56  81  57 /  20  10  10  10
Truth or Consequences   101  71 104  73 /  10  10   0  20
Silver City              96  67  98  68 /  10   0   0  20
Deming                  104  68 107  70 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg               102  68 105  72 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro      103  76 107  79 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City               101  68 106  69 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Hancock            104  71 109  73 /  10  10  10  10
Loma Linda               97  71 100  73 /  10   0  10  10
Fabens                  105  73 109  76 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa            102  71 107  74 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ          102  77 105  80 /   0   0  10  10
Jornada Range           102  68 106  69 /   0  10   0  10
Hatch                   104  67 107  70 /  10  10   0  10
Columbus                103  72 107  76 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande               101  70 105  74 /  10  10  10  10
Mayhill                  89  60  95  60 /  30  10  20  10
Mescalero                89  59  92  59 /  10  10  10  10
Timberon                 87  57  89  58 /  20  10  10  10
Winston                  94  62  95  63 /  10  10  10  20
Hillsboro                99  70 101  70 /  10  10   0  20
Spaceport               101  64 103  67 /  10  10   0  10
Lake Roberts             96  62  97  63 /  10   0   0  20
Hurley                   99  65 101  65 /   0   0   0  20
Cliff                   105  62 108  65 /   0   0   0  20
Mule Creek               99  67 100  69 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                  98  68 100  69 /  10   0   0  20
Animas                  103  68 105  71 /   0   0  10  10
Hachita                 102  68 105  72 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells          102  69 104  70 /   0   0  10  10
Cloverdale               99  70 100  69 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Saturday for
     TXZ420>422.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Saturday
     for TXZ418-419-423-424.

     Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-
     419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ401-
     403>411-414-416-417-427>429.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for NMZ110-111.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown