Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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365 FXUS64 KEPZ 072331 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 531 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur over the area today into tomorrow with strong winds being the main threat. Heat will be the main threat mid week next week into the future with a long duration heat event expected as we go into June. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Isolated to scattered storms will be the main short term threat over the area with SBCAPE values 500 to 1000 J/kg over our northern counties and into the eastern portions of our area. Severe threat will mainly stay over the lowlands with a strong inverted V sounding and DCAPE values well above 1500 J/kg and Dewpoint depressions around 60-70 degrees. We saw one 60mph gust from a shower, so if any storms do make it into the lowlands form Mexico there will be a severe wind threat that will include dust. The best time for El Paso or Las Cruces will be around sunset for a few hours. Tomorrow will be a fairly similar pattern except shifted to the east as a weak shortwave moves through the area. The main focus for storms will be east of the Rio Grande Valley in the afternoon and evening. NBM percentiles continue to show another hot day tomorrow with the 75th percentile showing 105F, which has verified well for the last week. This triggered us to extend the heat advisory for the El Paso and lower valley through Saturday. Sunday and Monday a shortwave trough aloft will push through the area. This weakening of the ridge will allow for slightly cooler temperatures and we may even struggle to get to 100F on Monday. Models had depicted a backdoor cold front pushing through on Monday, but the trend has been for that to stay east. A significant heat event appears to start setting up Wednesday into Thursday and will need to be monitored for trends as we go into next week. Long term ensemble guidance has us above 105F for an extended period of time and above 100F for as far as the model goes out into July. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions expected with variable skies, bases as low as 100. The wind forecast is low confidence, however, as ISO TSRA/SHRA will continue to create outflows across the area. One outflow is projected to move out of Mexico, reaching KELP around 02 or 03z. Wind conditions will continue to be monitored. Outside of storm outflow, prevailing flow will be west to southwest with speeds around 5 to 10 knots and a few higher gusts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The main threat for fire weather the next two days will be the thunderstorm and dry lightning that could be associated with those storms. These storms also have a good amount of dry air under them so strong to severe winds are possible and have been seen by storms over the Gila today. The outflows and gust fronts will be the major threat for any wildfires or prescribed burns that are going on. Overall winds will be light and RH values will remain marginal outside side of Tuesday which could see elevated fire conditions in the Gila. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 79 105 78 100 / 30 20 20 10 Sierra Blanca 68 96 71 94 / 20 30 30 10 Las Cruces 72 102 72 98 / 40 20 20 10 Alamogordo 68 99 66 96 / 30 20 20 20 Cloudcroft 54 75 53 72 / 40 30 20 40 Truth or Consequences 71 99 72 94 / 20 20 30 20 Silver City 66 89 64 87 / 20 20 20 30 Deming 70 99 69 96 / 30 20 20 20 Lordsburg 68 96 66 94 / 20 20 20 20 West El Paso Metro 76 100 75 97 / 40 20 20 10 Dell City 67 101 68 99 / 20 20 20 20 Fort Hancock 68 102 70 100 / 30 20 20 10 Loma Linda 70 94 70 91 / 20 20 20 10 Fabens 72 102 73 100 / 40 20 20 10 Santa Teresa 72 99 72 96 / 30 20 20 10 White Sands HQ 78 99 79 96 / 30 20 30 20 Jornada Range 67 99 66 96 / 30 20 30 20 Hatch 67 100 68 97 / 20 20 30 20 Columbus 76 98 74 97 / 40 20 20 10 Orogrande 71 99 69 95 / 20 20 20 20 Mayhill 59 88 59 84 / 30 30 20 50 Mescalero 56 87 56 83 / 30 30 20 40 Timberon 56 85 56 82 / 20 30 20 40 Winston 59 89 62 85 / 20 30 20 40 Hillsboro 68 94 69 92 / 10 20 30 40 Spaceport 63 98 64 95 / 30 20 30 20 Lake Roberts 61 90 61 87 / 20 20 20 30 Hurley 64 93 63 91 / 20 20 20 20 Cliff 63 97 61 96 / 10 20 10 20 Mule Creek 66 92 66 90 / 10 20 10 20 Faywood 68 92 67 90 / 20 20 30 20 Animas 67 95 64 94 / 20 20 20 20 Hachita 70 95 67 94 / 20 20 20 20 Antelope Wells 68 94 66 93 / 40 30 30 20 Cloverdale 67 89 64 88 / 30 20 30 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418. Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ419-423-424. NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ407-410-411. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown