Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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763 FXUS64 KEPZ 070857 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 257 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 205 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Another hot day is expected for today with a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, especially in the mountains. Dry lightning and strong downdraft winds are the main concerns through Saturday. Storm chances linger through Monday for northeastern areas as disturbances pass by. Temperatures become hot again by midweek as mainly dry conditions return. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Temps cool just a degree or so for today as the upper high shifts into west TX, allowing for a better monsoon pattern. Yesterday`s highs were near the NBM 75th percentile once again, but the increased cloud cover today could limit our heating potential. Scattered to broken CU develop in the mid-afternoon across the lowlands as dry t-storms pop up in the mountains. More isolated activity develops this evening for the lowlands as outflows slosh about and spark new cells. With dew point depressions of 60-70 degrees and DCAPE values 2000+ J/kg, any storms that develop have the potential to produce strong downdraft/dry microburst winds (50+ mph) this afternoon and evening. Strong outflow winds may produce haboobs. Dry lightning is another threat as the dry lower levels evaporate most if not all rainfall that is produced. Instability and shear will be meager at best, so garden- variety pop-up storms are expected until diurnal heating ceases this evening. This trend will continue into the weekend as the upper high drifts further to the east and a weak upper low moves into the region from the Baja. These two features will squeeze in moisture from the south, but not a significant amount. PWs stay slightly above normal (~0.75") on Saturday with the higher terrain most likely to see activity. Gusty outflows and downdrafts remain possible into Saturday evening. Precip totals are expected to be light through Saturday due to the deep dry layer the rain has to overcome. For Sunday and Monday, a backdoor front diving down the High Plains looks to merge with the Baja low, generating precip chances for northeastern areas. The moisture battles against developing westerly winds under the base of the opening shortwave. By midweek, the ridge takes over the region as most if not all lingering moisture is flushed out. Isolated storms remain possible in the mountains just due to orographic lift and residual surface moisture. Temperatures cool to near or below normal early next week behind the backdoor front/height falls from the passing shortwave. Rebounding temps are expected by the middle of next week underneath an amplified ridge, getting near heat advisory criteria. Other than gusty outflows/downdrafts, winds remain light to modestly breezy through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW130-BKN250. The winds will be light below 10 kts and variable through 19Z. The winds will then become low end breezy 9 to 14 kts with gust up to 22 kts and out from the southwest thereafter until 01Z Saturday. There may be a few VCTS of each terminal after 18Z (not mentioned in the TAFs). There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Low to moderate fire danger is expected through the period. Hot temperatures are forecast for today as moisture levels increase slightly into the weekend. Better shower and storm chances are expected for Friday and Saturday, especially over the mountains with potential for stronger gusts from downdrafts and outflows. Dry lightning remains a threat into the weekend with potential for new fire starts in the mountains. A couple disturbances keep the threat of showers and storms through Monday for areas to the north and east. Precip chances diminish by midweek as dry westerly winds develop and flush out most of the moisture. A few storms remain possible in the mountains for the middle of next week. Temperatures will cool to near normal early in the week as the disturbances pass by. Mainly dry and hotter conditions are expected for the middle of next week. Min RHs will range from 8-15% in the lowlands, 12-25% in the mountains through Saturday. Vent rates will be very good to excellent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 107 79 102 78 / 20 40 20 20 Sierra Blanca 98 68 96 70 / 30 40 20 30 Las Cruces 105 72 101 70 / 20 40 20 20 Alamogordo 103 68 98 66 / 20 40 20 20 Cloudcroft 79 54 75 54 / 40 40 40 20 Truth or Consequences 101 71 98 71 / 30 30 20 20 Silver City 95 65 89 62 / 30 20 20 20 Deming 105 70 98 66 / 20 40 20 20 Lordsburg 102 68 96 65 / 20 20 20 20 West El Paso Metro 104 76 99 74 / 20 40 20 20 Dell City 103 68 101 68 / 30 40 20 20 Fort Hancock 105 70 102 69 / 40 40 20 30 Loma Linda 97 70 93 68 / 30 40 20 20 Fabens 106 73 101 73 / 30 40 20 20 Santa Teresa 103 72 98 70 / 20 40 20 20 White Sands HQ 104 77 98 77 / 30 40 20 20 Jornada Range 104 68 99 67 / 30 40 20 20 Hatch 105 68 101 68 / 30 40 20 20 Columbus 104 76 98 72 / 20 40 20 20 Orogrande 102 71 98 69 / 20 40 20 20 Mayhill 92 59 88 59 / 40 40 40 20 Mescalero 90 57 87 57 / 40 40 30 20 Timberon 89 55 85 56 / 30 40 40 20 Winston 93 60 90 61 / 40 30 30 20 Hillsboro 100 69 94 67 / 40 30 30 20 Spaceport 102 64 98 64 / 30 30 20 20 Lake Roberts 95 61 90 60 / 40 20 20 20 Hurley 98 64 93 60 / 20 30 20 20 Cliff 104 63 98 61 / 30 20 10 20 Mule Creek 98 66 92 65 / 20 10 10 10 Faywood 98 68 93 65 / 30 40 20 20 Animas 101 69 95 64 / 20 30 20 20 Hachita 101 70 96 66 / 20 40 30 20 Antelope Wells 100 71 93 65 / 30 40 30 20 Cloverdale 94 68 89 64 / 30 30 20 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418-419-423-424. NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ407-410-411. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson