Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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271 FXUS64 KEPZ 062035 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 235 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Temperatures will remain hot throughout the period. Temperatures will decrease some through Monday before warming again into next week. There will also be a chance for showers and thunderstorms though little rainfall is expected. Dry lightning and gusty winds will be the main concerns with any storms. The greatest chance for precipitation will be Friday with Tuesday the lowest. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 It`s hot and going to continue to be hot. That is most of the weather picture. It is a bit after 1:30 PM, and KELP is already having its hottest day of the year, so far. All lowland locations are already well into the 90s and 100s. I expanded the heat advisory to the remainder of Dona Ana County and added Luna County given current temperatures and tomorrow`s forecast. UL ridge is more or less centered over us though water vapor satellite shows the ridge axis a bit elongated from near Las Vegas, NV arcing across AZ into Central NM. Some moisture continues to creep in beneath the ridge, so our mountains have an outside shot for a shower or thunderstorm. Gusty winds and dry lightning would be the main concern. The UL high will shift to the east allowing southerly flow to develop with an increase in moisture. PWat values will increase from around 0.5" to north of 0.75". Showers and thunderstorm coverage will increase accordingly, especially for the mountains. Nevertheless it will be almost as hot as today, so min RH values will still be in the teens and single digits. CAMs suggest at least scattered coverage, but much of what falls will never reach the ground. Dry lightning and gusty winds will remain a concern for tomorrow. Going into the weekend, an U/L trough will try and push northwest into the Chihuahua desert while the high continues east and weakens. Temperatures will trend downward, but this will also cause moisture to begin trending downward as well. Isolated showers and dry thunderstorm chances will be possible through the weekend but with less expected coverage than Friday. As we head into next week, the UL ridge, which is originating from Mexico, where historical heat is occurring, will begin to build northward. Moisture will decrease Monday and even more Tuesday before some more moisture tries to slip in Wednesday. Temperatures will begin to increase again, and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday and Wednesday, primarily over mountains. Current forecast shows us needing more heat advisories by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions expected with SCT250 along with FEW-SCT130 this afternoon. Winds will remain light, generally less than 10 knots. Direction will be somewhat variable though primarily southerly. There is a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms over mountains, which may send some outflow toward TAF sites. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The main concern for the period will be isolated dry lightning. Moisture has increased some for the area, mainly helping overnight recoveries. By afternoon though, the much above normal temperatures are still allowing min RH values to drop into the lower teens and single digits. Thus, precipitation from any showers or storms will struggle to reach the ground leading to the dry lightning concern. Highest probability for showers, thunderstorms, and subsequent dry lightning will be for Friday, but at least isolated coverage will continue each afternoon into Monday. Temperatures will gradually cool through the period as well. Gusty winds will also be a concern with any shower or thunderstorm. Otherwise, winds will top out around 10 to 15 MPH each afternoon. Venting will range very good to excellent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 80 106 79 103 / 10 20 50 20 Sierra Blanca 70 97 69 95 / 10 20 50 20 Las Cruces 72 105 71 101 / 10 20 40 20 Alamogordo 72 102 65 99 / 10 20 30 20 Cloudcroft 57 77 54 75 / 10 40 30 30 Truth or Consequences 72 100 70 99 / 10 20 30 20 Silver City 67 94 64 90 / 10 30 30 30 Deming 68 103 68 99 / 10 20 40 20 Lordsburg 69 102 68 96 / 10 20 30 20 West El Paso Metro 77 103 76 100 / 10 20 50 20 Dell City 70 102 68 100 / 10 20 30 20 Fort Hancock 72 105 69 102 / 10 20 50 20 Loma Linda 72 97 70 93 / 10 20 50 20 Fabens 75 105 72 101 / 10 20 50 20 Santa Teresa 72 102 71 99 / 10 20 50 20 White Sands HQ 77 102 76 99 / 10 20 40 20 Jornada Range 67 102 66 99 / 10 20 40 20 Hatch 67 104 67 101 / 10 20 40 20 Columbus 73 104 75 99 / 10 30 50 20 Orogrande 72 101 69 98 / 10 20 30 20 Mayhill 61 89 58 87 / 10 40 30 40 Mescalero 59 89 56 87 / 10 30 30 30 Timberon 57 87 55 85 / 10 30 30 30 Winston 62 92 60 91 / 10 40 30 40 Hillsboro 70 98 67 96 / 10 30 30 30 Spaceport 65 101 63 99 / 10 20 30 20 Lake Roberts 63 95 60 91 / 10 30 30 30 Hurley 65 97 63 93 / 10 20 30 30 Cliff 65 102 63 98 / 10 30 20 20 Mule Creek 68 97 66 93 / 10 20 10 20 Faywood 69 97 65 93 / 10 20 30 20 Animas 69 101 70 94 / 20 30 30 20 Hachita 70 102 70 95 / 20 30 40 20 Antelope Wells 69 100 70 93 / 20 40 40 30 Cloverdale 70 95 69 88 / 20 30 40 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for TXZ418-419-423-424. NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for NMZ407-410-411. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown