Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
848 FXUS64 KEPZ 142044 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 244 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Quiet weather conditions through much of the period as the heat continues for the Borderland at least through early next week. The temperatures in the lowlands will be mostly in the triple digits. The winds will be light to breezy each afternoon. Toward the end of the period, there will be a chance for areawide showers and thunderstorm, which would allow for the temperatures to decrease to below the normal by then. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Currently, there are some clouds over the area with a few showers moving through. The heaviest showers are in the Sacramento Mountains. The winds are light to breezy with the temperatures on the hot side. For tonight, any storms that continue on after the sun sets will diminish by this evening. A short wave trough that brought somewhat of an active pattern today will exit our region while entering into the Plains. High pressure will begin to re- establish itself across the far Southwest by Saturday morning. The skies will become mostly clear and with the winds light to breezy. With that said, the low temperatures on Saturday morning will be mainly above the average. For Saturday, a flat ridge will be across the aforementioned area with mainly zonal flow aloft, Conditions will be dry with the flow near the surface mainly from the west. Due to this, the temperatures in the lowlands will be in the triple digits. Sunday will be another hot day the high pressure centering across Baja California. El Paso is expected to to see the high temperature around 106 degrees. By early next week, this high pressure ridge will begin to breakdown slightly as a trough of low pressure digs in from across the northwest. The temperatures will still be above the average despite a slight lowering in the height field. The flow will be generally out from the west and southwest; thus, the high temperature for El Paso will still be around 105 degrees with many of its surrounding areas in the triple digits. The trough will continue to dig across the Southwest and the dryline to east of us. This will allow the heat to continue across the Borderland. By the middle of next week, the initial low/trough will exit into the Canadian Territories from across the Northwest. However, it will leave begin a secondary trough across the Southwest. With this trough in place and the dryline beginning to move westward, moisture will move back into our area. As a result of this, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through the end of next week across most of the area. This will cause our temperatures to cool to below the climatological normal around the same period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW150-SCT250. The winds will be breezy 10 to 17 kts with gusts up to 23 kts until around 01Z Saturday. The direction of the winds will be somewhat variable due to the passage of a storm system mainly to our north. However, it will be from between the southwest and the southeast across most of the terminals. They will then become light and variable thereafter. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 For the rest of this afternoon, there will be a few showers in the lowlands and thunderstorms especially in the Sacramento Mountains. Tonight recovery will be poor to excellent. For Saturday, drier air will move in. The 20ft winds will be light to breezy and variable in direction with the temperatures above the normal. Saturday overnight recovery will be poor to fair. For Sunday, dry air will remain in place with no precipitation in sight. The 20ft winds will be generally breezy a variable in direction with above average temperatures. For the rest of the period, quiet conditions are expected with breezy afternoon winds and mostly above normal temperatures. However, the temperatures will gradually decrease each consecutive day. With that being said, fire weather conditions will be near critical through the period. The min RHs on Saturday will be generally in the single digits across much of the area except for in the Sacramento mountains where they will be between 16 and 17%. The min RHs on Sunday will be below 15% across the entire zones. The ventilation rates will be very good to excellent on Saturday then mostly excellent on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 105 75 106 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 69 100 68 101 / 20 0 10 0 Las Cruces 69 102 69 104 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 67 99 69 103 / 20 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 51 77 55 79 / 30 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 67 97 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 61 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 63 101 64 103 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 63 99 65 100 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 74 101 72 103 / 10 0 0 0 Dell City 70 103 65 105 / 30 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 70 105 67 107 / 20 0 10 0 Loma Linda 68 95 68 97 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 71 104 69 106 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 68 100 66 102 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 74 100 77 102 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 63 100 66 102 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 63 101 65 104 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 69 101 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 70 99 69 101 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 54 89 59 91 / 30 10 0 10 Mescalero 54 87 58 90 / 20 10 0 0 Timberon 54 86 57 88 / 20 0 0 0 Winston 54 91 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 64 96 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 60 98 63 101 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 55 94 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 59 95 61 97 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 56 102 59 102 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 61 95 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 62 95 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 61 100 64 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 61 100 64 101 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 63 99 64 100 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 63 94 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ420>422. Excessive Heat Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ418-419- 423-424. Heat Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM MDT Monday for TXZ418- 419-423-424. NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110. Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ401-403>410-414-416- 417-425-427>429. Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ411. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira