Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
083 FXUS64 KEPZ 281728 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1128 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 Dry, hot weather will continue with not much of any chance of rain in sight. Persistent dry west to southwest flow aloft is the main culprit for this weather. This will keep fire conditions elevated but fortunately, other than afternoon breezes, there doesn`t appear to be any windy days through this weekend. Temperatures will remain well above normal and many lowland sites should see their first triple digit high temperatures this week, especially this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 Current look at the weather features shows a low amplitude ridge from the Big Bend area north over New Mexico slowly phasing in with increasing amplified ridge over the northern Rockies into Canada. This ridge will only slowly drift east, in it`s N-S alignment over the Plains/central US by Wednesday. Thus dry southwest flow aloft will continue through much of this week. At the surface a back door cool front extends north-south over eastern New Mexico and is slowly drifting west. Models, including the HRRR, show this front nearing the Sac Mtns later this morning, but then quickly eroding away from the west as west winds increase this afternoon in response to a weak short wave moving across the CWA. Temperatures will be on the hot side, with the Rio Grande Valley from El Paso downstream possibly reaching 100-103. Wednesday through Sunday...the only change aloft is the ridge pushes off east Thursday and Friday as a large low over Canada brings a trough across New Mexico. This won`t have much impact other than dropping high temps a few degrees, but models do show the dry-line pushing west toward our far eastern CWA margins Friday. This line will tease us through the weekend but never actually push into our area. Looking beyond the forecast period...GFS/ECMWF both show sub- tropical high building over much of the Desert Southwest, allowing the dry-line intrusion into much of the CWA by next Wednesday and Thursday. Lets hope this pans out to at least alleviate the elevated fire conditions--if not actually bring some rain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with mainly SKC. The winds will be light at first, but will become breezy around 15 kts with gusts up to 27 kts and out from generally the west between 19 and 02Z Wednesday. The winds will decrease thereafter across most of the terminals except at KTCS where they will continue to be breezy after 08Z Wednesday. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 Fire conditions will remain at elevated to near-critical through this weekend, as dry southwest flow aloft persists. We should avoid the stronger winds, but expect each afternoon through Sunday to see 15-25 mph winds with a few higher gusts. However min RHs will remain very low, and even overnight recovery will be poor, as max RHs only rise to about 20-35%. Winds across the fire zones will remain mostly west/southwest through this weekend. Winds around the Blue2 fire could briefly turn south/southeast later this morning as a back door cool front approaches from the east, but they would quickly snap back to southwest this afternoon. Another wind shift from the east/southeast could occur late tonight into Wednesday morning before quickly turning back to the west Wednesday afternoon. The Blue2 fire could finally see some relief toward mid week next week as dry-line (hopeful of models) brings a more substantial humid east push in. Min RHs: Lowlands 4-8% through Sunday. Mountains 8-13% through Sunday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 100 67 98 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 95 66 93 61 / 10 10 10 0 Las Cruces 97 59 95 59 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 96 57 94 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 77 40 73 41 / 0 10 10 0 Truth or Consequences 95 57 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 87 49 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 96 53 96 54 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 94 53 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 99 65 97 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 99 55 97 58 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Hancock 102 58 100 59 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 93 56 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 100 62 99 62 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 97 59 95 58 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 97 59 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 96 49 94 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 98 54 96 55 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 98 59 97 61 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 95 56 93 52 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 87 44 83 45 / 0 10 10 0 Mescalero 89 42 85 44 / 0 10 10 0 Timberon 87 39 83 43 / 0 0 10 0 Winston 88 42 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 94 52 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 95 50 95 49 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 88 40 86 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 91 47 89 48 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 91 38 90 41 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 90 32 88 37 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 91 52 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 95 54 94 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 95 54 94 55 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 95 56 94 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 90 54 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira