Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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708 FXUS64 KEPZ 262002 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 202 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Quiet weather conditions with light breezes, warming temperatures, and generally mostly sunny skies expected through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with warm, very dry, and stagnant pattern in place The upper level trough responsible for yesterday`s active weather has since moved east. Weather becomes quiet with upper level ridge building in across the Desert Southwest. The ridge axis initially sets-up over us, but gradually moves east Wednesday into Thursday. This will keep us bone dry with warming temperatures and afternoon breezes. Earlier model runs had moisture slipping into Hudspeth and eastern Otero Counties Tuesday and Wednesday with NBM still holding onto some ghost chances for showers. Each successive model run, especially from the GFS and Euro, casts further and further doubt this will occur. As the ridge slides east into the Plains, deep SW flow will allow temperatures to climb well into the 90s with El Paso making a run at its first 100. Latest run of the NBM has El Paso hitting 100 on Tuesday. Afterwards, height falls and a minor trough passage look to bring highs back down a few degrees, but still well into the 90s. Looking beyond, model and ensemble guidance shows growing confidence in that the upper level ridge responsible for our typical June heat will begin taking shape by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with skies SKC. Winds will become breezy this afternoon out of 250-280 direction at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots. Winds will decrease after sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Fire weather conditions will remain ELEVATED to near-CRITICAL through the forecast period as a very dry, warm, and stagnant-like pattern builds in across the region. Afternoon Min RH values will remain in the single digits to teens through the week with breezy winds each afternoon and evening. Winds will range between 10 to 20 mph, predominately out of the southwest through the week. Thus, ELEVATED to near-CRITICAL fire weather conditions for the foreseeable future. Afternoon vent rates will range very good to excellent each afternoon. Smoke venting will generally be to the east or east- northeast though some variance to the direction is possible mainly at night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 65 98 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 61 92 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 58 96 60 98 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 93 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 46 71 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 59 92 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 53 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 52 95 54 97 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 54 92 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 95 65 97 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 53 97 56 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 59 99 63 102 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 60 89 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 59 98 62 100 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 55 94 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 66 94 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 54 92 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 54 95 54 97 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 95 60 96 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 58 92 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 51 84 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 48 81 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 48 80 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 51 85 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 56 90 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 52 92 53 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 48 86 50 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 50 88 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 52 92 54 94 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 54 87 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 54 87 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 53 92 54 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 54 93 55 95 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 54 93 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 56 87 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers